0000000000272993
AUTHOR
Joseph P. Byrne
The Global Side of the Investments-Savings Puzzle
In this paper we re-examine the long standing and puzzling correlation between national savings and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of savings and investment. We also find that the global components in savings and investments commove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.
Primary Commodity Prices: Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals
The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, we document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on the co-movement of commodity prices.
Total Factor Productivity Convergence Amongst Italian Regions: Some Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests
Byrne J. P., Fazio G. and Piacentino D. Total factor productivity convergence among Italian regions: some evidence from panel unit root tests. Regional Studies. This paper employs panel unit root tests to investigate convergence in total factor productivity (TFP) among Italian regions. These tests provide an inference valid in the presence of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, and when the cross-sectional dimension is smaller than the time dimension, allowing the investigation of convergence among different subsets of regions. The results add a further dimension to the conventional view on growth dynamics in the Italian peninsula depicting a lack of regional TFP convergence not o…
Interest rate co-movements, global factors and the long end of the term spread
The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007); or a global savings glut (e.g Bernanke, 2005) may be responsible. In this paper, we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to document the disconnect and link it explicitly to the existence of a global latent factor that dominates the long end of the term spread for the recent period; the saving glut story emerges as the most likely contender for the global factor.