Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate

The Iberian lynx ( Lynx pardinus ) has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century and is now on the brink of extinction 1 . Climate change could further threaten the survival of the species 2 , but its forecast effects are being neglected in recovery plans 3,4 . Quantitative estimates of extinction risk under climate change have so far mostly relied on inferences from correlative projections of species’ habitat shifts 5 . Here we use ecological niche models coupled to metapopulation simulations with source–sink dynamics 6,7 to directly investi- gate the combined effects of climate change, prey availabil- ity and management intervention on the persistence of the Iberian lyn…