0000000000291148
AUTHOR
G. M. Galante
A dempster-shafer theory-based approach to compute the birnbaum importance measure under epistemic uncertainty
Importance Measures (IMs) aim at quantifying the contribution of components to the system performance. In Process Risk Assessment (PRA), they are commonly used by risk managers to derive information about the risk/safety significance of events. However, IMs are typically calculated without taking into account the uncertainty that inevitably occurs whenever the input reliability data are poor. In literature, uncertainty arising from the lack of knowledge on the system/process parameters is defined as epistemic or subjective uncertainty. The present work aims at investigating on its influence on the Birnbaum IM and on how such an uncertainty could be accounted for in the components ranking. I…
Structured methodology for selection of maintenance key performance indicators: Application to an oil refinery plant
The novel contribution of the work is the proposal of a structured multi-step methodology that may support the Decision Maker (DM) in the measurement of maintenance performance by means of Maintenance Key Performance Indicators (MKPIs). To this aim, a multi-level hierarchical framework able to synthesize the most meaningful aspects affecting the maintenance results is designed. Then, MKPIs are selected from the literature, assigned to the hierarchical framework and ranked by an Analytic Hierarchy Process-based approach with incomplete comparison matrices. A mathematical model is finally formulated to select the optimal set of MKPIs. The methodology is implemented in an oil refinery plant an…
Combined HACCP and TOPSIS-based approach to prioritize risks in the salmon manufacturing process: A case study
The food safety risk assessment is defined by the Codex Alimentarius Commission as the scientific evaluation of known or potential adverse health effects resulting from human exposure to food-borne hazards. Nowadays, the implementation of a systematic and disciplined risk assessment approach in the food safety field is recognized to be a powerful tool for carrying out science-based analyses and for reaching sound consistent solutions to food safety problems. With this recognition, a combined Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)-based approach is proposed in the present paper to prioritize risks of t…
A hierarchical framework for the measurement of maintenance efficacy and efficiency using performance indicators
Maintenance plays an important role in achieving the organizational goals so that the measurement of its effectiveness and efficiency has become an essential element of industrial strategy. In literature several Maintenance Key Performance Indicators (MKPIs) are proposed but none structured approach is suggested to select the best set of MKPIs able to synthetically describe a specific maintenance context. The paper proposes a structured methodology for the maintenance performance measurement by means of MKPIs. Firstly, a multi-level hierarchical framework able to synthesize the most meaningful perspectives affecting the performance of the maintenance process is designed. Successively, some …
A bottom-up procedure to calculate the Top Event probability in presence of epistemic uncertainty
Industrial plants may be subjected to very dangerous events. Different methodologies are employed to evaluate the probability of their occurrence, as Process Safety Analysis (PSA) or Risk Analysis (RA). However, since for rare events reliability data are poor, the epistemic uncertainty needs to be considered. In this context, the classical probabilistic approach cannot be successfully used and then different approaches must be taken into account. Actually, this paper proposes the use of the Evidence Theory or Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) to deal with data characterizing rare events in high risk industrial sites. In particular, a classical Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is considered when the onl…
Human reliability analysis to support the development of a software project
The Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is considered as a useful tool in predicting and quantifying the occurrence of human errors during the execution of a specific task. With this recognition, the present paper firstly aims at discussing the support given by HRA methodologies to the fault risk evaluation. Then, the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) is suggested to evaluate the success probability of a software development project.