0000000000292197
AUTHOR
Mika Pajarinen
Opacity of young businesses: Evidence from rating disagreements
Abstract A conventional wisdom in the contemporary corporate finance literature argues that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are informationally opaque. We use data from two credit information companies and in particular their disagreements over the creditworthiness of SMEs to study the empirical relevance of this often invoked assumption. Our panel data analysis shows that once unobserved firm-effects are controlled for, the disagreements (i.e., rating splits) are inversely related to the age of firms. We are not able to document such a robust relationship between the disagreements and the size of firms. This finding holds a lesson for empirical corporate finance researchers who n…
Does innovativeness reduce startup survival rates?
There are two competing hypotheses explaining how innovativeness influences the survival of startups: On the one hand, innovativeness is argued to foster survival-enhancing attributes (e.g., market power and cost efficiency) and capabilities (e.g., absorptive capacity). On the other hand, an innovative startup faces (and bears the associated risks of) liabilities of newness and smallness that exceed those of its non-innovative counterparts. The available empirical literature addressing this theoretical tension mostly supports the former hypothesis; we suggest that this finding is, in part, driven by the common practice of employing an ex post measure that already embodies a degree of succes…
Entrepreneurial optimism and survival
This paper uses entrepreneurs’ survival expectations around the time of market entry and subsequent venture exits to study entrepreneurial optimism. Using data on a large number of nascent entrepreneurs in the US and start-ups in Finland, we find that new entrepreneurs survival beliefs are on average optimistic but heterogeneous: Some are excessively optimistic, whereas a small subset holds unbiased beliefs. Entrepreneurial optimism is increasing in the relative (interpersonal) optimism and decreasing in entrepreneurs level of education and industry experience in both countries. At least in Finland, those holding optimistic views are more likely to transit into entrepreneurship.
Forecasting Errors of New Venture Survival
This article studies entrepreneurs' forecast errors around market entry. Using data on nascent entrepreneurs in the U.S. and start-ups in Finland, we find that besides being overoptimistic on average in both countries, entrepreneurs' survival expectations can barely distinguish survival from exits. Moreover, about one fourth of the entrepreneurs do not provide an estimate for the survival of a typical venture. However, among those that do provide it, the estimates are less overoptimistic. We also compare the forecast accuracy of entrepreneurs to those of macroeconomic forecasters. Our findings provide guidance for the development of positive theories of entrepreneurial belief formation and …