Recurrence time distribution and temporal clustering properties of a cellular automaton modelling landslide events
Abstract. Reasonable prediction of landslide occurrences in a given area requires the choice of an appropriate probability distribution of recurrence time intervals. Although landslides are widespread and frequent in many parts of the world, complete databases of landslide occurrences over large periods are missing and often such natural disasters are treated as processes uncorrelated in time and, therefore, Poisson distributed. In this paper, we examine the recurrence time statistics of landslide events simulated by a cellular automaton model that reproduces well the actual frequency-size statistics of landslide catalogues. The complex time series are analysed by varying both the threshold…
The Contribution of Electrical Resistivity Measurements to the Analysis of Landslide Events
In order to gain insight into the study of natural avalanches dynamics, we illustrate a statistical model based on a dissipative dynamical variable associated to a position dependent factor of safety field. This model, as experimentally demonstrated, is able to reproduce the complex structure of landslide events, such as power-law distributions. In this paper, we introduce an explicit dependence of the safety factor on the electrical resistivity to simulate landslide events in pyroclastic soils. An application of the model to data acquired in a test area characterized by flowslide events (Monte Albino, Campania Region - South Italy) bear witness the relevant role played by the resistivity m…