0000000000295922
AUTHOR
Vítor Castro
FINANCIAL MARKETS' SHUTDOWN AND REACCESS
We employ a discrete-time parametric duration model on a group of 121 countries over the period 1970â2011 and find that the probability of the end of financial markets' shutdown and reaccess falls as these events become longer. We also show that: (1) shutdown episodes are longer when economic prospects are poor and the degree of financial openness falls, the chief executive has been in office for long periods, and the country has a default history and (2) spells of reaccess tend to be longer when economic growth improves and financial openness increases, there are neither government crises nor government instability, and the country did not default in the past. (JEL C41, G15).
A quest between fiscal and market discipline
Fiscal rules are typically seen as government constraints. Yet, the extent to which they are substituted or complemented by market discipline (especially, during financial stress) remains unexplored. Using data for 71 countries over the period 1985–2015, we estimate an “augmented” fiscal reaction function to assess the impact of both fiscal and market discipline. We find that different market signals influence fiscal policy, but fiscal discipline depends on market incentives. In the EU and the OECD, market signals complement fiscal rules. These are less effective in the EMU and non-OECD countries that are “debt intolerant”. Yet, there are unintended consequences: (i) neither output and debt…
On the international co-movement of natural interest rates
Using quarterly data for 10 OECD countries and the Euro area and a Kalman filtering technique, we investigate the international co-movement among natural interest rates. We show that the US is the main source of global spillovers and global/common factors appear to be key drivers of such co-movement. Indeed, global liquidity is a net transmitter of shocks, while quantitative easing (QE) and the US Dollar are net recipients of shocks. We also find that total spillovers among natural interest rates have been rising since the late nineties, spiking at around economic re-cessions, periods of US monetary policy tightening, the global financial crisis and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. From …
Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why "too" low (high) for "so" long?
We study the behaviour of real interest rate gaps-i.e. periods of real interest rates above (below) the natural interest rate-and link their length with a set of key observable determinants. Using quarterly data for 13 OECD countries over (close to) the last 60 years, we find that global risk-taking, CPI inflation, (un)conventional monetary policy, and income redistribution crucially shape the duration of both events. However, while labour-related supply-side factors appear to affect the length of positive interest rate gaps, the adoption of an inflation targeting regime and the current account balance seem to explain the duration of negative interest rate gaps. Our results suggest that the…