0000000000308763
AUTHOR
Rania Jammazi
Interactions between financial stress and economic activity for the U.S.: A time- and frequency-varying analysis using wavelets
Abstract This paper examines the interactions between the main U.S. financial stress indices and several measures of economic activity in the time–frequency domain using a number of continuous cross-wavelet tools, including the usual wavelet squared coherence and phase difference as well as two new summary wavelet-based measures. The empirical results show that the relationship between financial stress and the U.S. real economy varies considerably over time and depending on the time horizon considered. A significant adverse effect of financial stress on U.S. economic activity is observed since the onset of the subprime mortgage crisis in the summer of 2007, indicating that the impact of fin…
Time-varying dependence between stock and government bond returns: International evidence with dynamic copulas
This paper investigates the dependence pattern between stock and long-term government bond returns for a wide range of developed countries over the last two decades by using a dynamic DCC-GARCH-copula model. This approach allows obtaining a flexible and comprehensive description of the time variation in the linkage between stock and bond markets. The empirical results show that the dependence structure between stock and 10-year government bond returns varies significantly over time for most countries. In particular, a positive stock-bond association is observed during the 1990s, while the relationship becomes negative from the early 2000s,supporting the presence of flight-to-quality effects…
Main driving factors of the interest rate-stock market Granger causality
Abstract This paper investigates the causal relationship between changes in the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the S&P 500 stock return in the United Sates with emphasis on time variation, stress factors and smooth regime transition. First, the time-varying Granger causality test proposed by Lu et al. (2014) is applied. Then a two-regime multifactor smooth transition regression model with a single transition variable representing a wide range of macroeconomic and financial variables is estimated in order to identify the key explanatory factors governing the causal relationship. The results show a significant bidirectional causal relationship over most of the study period, mainly due to the…
Time-varying dependence between stock and government bond returns: International evidence with dynamic copulas
Abstract This paper investigates the dependence pattern between stock and long-term government bond returns for a wide range of developed countries over the last two decades by using a dynamic DCC-GARCH-copula model. This approach allows obtaining a flexible and comprehensive description of the time variation in the linkage between stock and bond markets. The empirical results show that the dependence structure between stock and 10-year government bond returns varies significantly over time for most countries. In particular, a positive stock–bond association is observed during the 1990s, while the relationship becomes negative from the early 2000s, supporting the presence of flight-to-quali…
Time-varying causality between crude oil and stock markets: What can we learn from a multiscale perspective?
This paper investigates the presence of time-varying causal linkages in mean and variance between oil price changes and stock returns for six major oil-importing countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US) in a multiscale framework that combines wavelet analysis and a modified version of the dynamic causality test of Lu, Hong, Wang, Lai, and Liu (2014). The results show significant bidirectional causal relations between oil and stock markets at the different time horizons for all countries. The causal links tend to be stronger at coarser scales and in periods of financial turmoil, mainly during the recent global financial and European sovereign debt crises. This evidence pr…
Industry-level determinants of the linkage between credit and stock markets
ABSTRACTThis paper examines the relationship between US credit default swaps (CDS) and stock returns on an industry-wide basis across a number of investment horizons, with particular focus on the m...