0000000000309195
AUTHOR
Fernando Palao
Do Price Barriers Exist in the European Carbon Market?
ABSTRACTIt is generally thought that psychological prices in markets primarily traded by professional participants should play a limited role. The authors investigate the existence of key reference points in the European Carbon Market, which can be considered as a market with highly qualified stakeholders. They document the presence of key levels and barrier bands around European Union Allowances (EUA) prices. It appears that traders tend to consider these price levels as resistances in upward movements and as supports in downward movements. Furthermore, the authors have observed that the existence of price barriers affects both return and volume dynamics. Therefore, the results indicate th…
Carbon and safe-haven flows
<abstract> <p>This paper explores the role of European Union Allowances (EUAs) as a safe haven for a range of assets and analyses the effect of safe-haven flows on the European carbon futures market. In particular, we demonstrate that EUAs can be considered a refuge against fluctuations in corporate bonds, gold and volatility-related assets in periods of market turmoil. Furthermore, we have shown that extremely bearish and bullish movements in those assets for which the EUA acts as a safe haven induce excess volatility in carbon markets, higher carbon trading volume and larger than normal EUA bid-ask spreads. These findings support the idea that some traders, by considering carb…
Is the leadership of the Brent-WTI threatened by China's new crude oil futures market?
Abstract The recent listing of a new crude oil futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) has reopened the debate over whether crude oil produced in different countries or locations constitutes a unified world oil market. The aim of this paper is to study the information flows among Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and the new Medium Sour Crude Oil (SC) futures contract listed on INE futures markets to assess whether the trading of this new futures contract has altered the dominant role of the most traded oil benchmarks in the world. A multiple regression model identifies the Brent futures market as the most influential market in the oil price discovery process…
Assessing price clustering in European Carbon Markets
Abstract The presence of price clustering in markets is taken as a sign of market inefficiency that can influence trading strategies. In this paper, we study the presence of a concentration in prices in carbon futures markets. Specifically, we analyze the European Carbon Futures Markets and test for evidence of preference for certain prices above others. Our results reveal the strong presence of price clustering in the carbon market at prices ending in digits 0 and 5. These findings support the attraction hypothesis, which endorses a significant clustering on gravitational prices, but also backs the negotiation hypothesis, which advocates greater clustering when trading costs are higher.
What makes carbon traders cluster their orders?
Abstract The ability to trade large amounts of assets at low costs could be hindered when the size of the orders is concentrated at specific trade sizes. This paper documents evidence of size clustering behavior in the European Carbon Futures Market and analyzes the circumstances under which it happens. Our findings show that carbon trades are concentrated in sizes of one to five contracts and in multiples of five. We have also demonstrated that more clustered prices have more clustered sizes, suggesting that price and size resolution in the European Carbon Market are complementary and that carbon traders round both the price and the size of their orders. Finally, the analysis of the key de…
Size Clustering in European Carbon Markets
This paper documents empirical evidence of size clustering behavior in the European Carbon Futures Market and analyzes the circumstances under which it happens. Our findings show that carbon trades are concentrated in sizes of one to five contracts and in multiples of five. We have observed the existence of price clustering of prices ending in digits 0 or 5, and we have also proved that more clustered prices have more clustered sizes. Finally, the analysis of the key factors of the size clustering reveals that carbon traders use a reduced number of different trade sizes to simplify their trading process when uncertainty is high, market liquidity is poor, and the desire for opening new posit…
Do Carbon Traders Behave as a Herd?
Abstract This paper shows the existence of herding behavior in the European Carbon Futures Market and studies its possible causes and consequences. This market is characterized by leading the carbon price discovery process and by being highly dominated by professional traders. Both features make it an appropriate environment for the existence of herding. A patterns analysis indicates that the herding level increases in speculative periods, on those days on which the price and size clustering effect is stronger, and with the arrival of carbon-related news. Regarding possible market drivers, we find that herding behavior is positively related with the number of trades, the intraday volatility…
The inconvenience yield of carbon futures
Abstract Since 2009, the European Carbon Futures Market has been in a permanent contango situation that is characterised by systematic negative convenience yields that allow investors to exploit profitable arbitrage opportunities. The objective of this paper is to analyse the possible drivers of these negative convenience yields. Our empirical results indicate that although some carbon trading variables are behind this contango situation, the carbon inconvenience yield is better explained if other financial markets and variables are considered, suggesting a financialization of the European Carbon Futures Market.