The Stationarity of Lead-Lag Teleconnections with East Africa Rainfall and its Incidence on Seasonal Predictability

East Africa experiences large interannual rainfall variations, which can lead to severe droughts, as in 1984 in Ethiopia, or extensive flooding, as in 1997 in Somalia and Kenya. In the last 15 years, significant advances have been made in relating these variations to large-scale ocean-atmosphere anomalies, of which those associated to ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) come first. The additional importance of sea-surface variations in the Tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans is becoming established. Although 20th century East African precipitation series did not experience decadal-scale trends as significant as those found in the sahelian belt, the correlation with ENSO, the Indian monsoon …

Timing and patterns of the ENSO signal in Africa over the last 30 years: insights from normalized difference vegetation index data.

Abstract A more complete picture of the timing and patterns of the ENSO signal during the seasonal cycle for the whole of Africa over the three last decades is provided using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Indeed, NDVI has a higher spatial resolution and is more frequently updated than in situ climate databases, and highlights the impact of ENSO on vegetation dynamics as a combined result of ENSO on rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature. The month-by-month NDVI–Niño-3.4 correlation patterns evolve as follows. From July to September, negative correlations are observed over the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea coast, and regions from the northern Democratic Republic of Congo…

The East African March–May Rainy Season: Associated Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability over the 1968–97 Period

Abstract This paper focuses on the East African March–May “long rains.” Particularly, it investigates the atmospheric patterns associated to the March–May rainfall anomalies, then proposes a seasonal prediction model. In a preliminary step, in order to define a regional rainfall index, a new form of extended principal component analysis is performed, aimed at capturing both the spatial and intraseasonal rainfall coherence. What emerges is that although the long rains exhibit a low temporal coherence, calling for a separation between the months of March–April and May in teleconnection studies, they show a relatively strong spatial consistency over the Kenya–Uganda inland region. From composi…

Cycles diurnes de rayonnement solaire et forets en Afrique Centrale.

The sunlightconditions prevailing in Central Africa, and their potential impact on forests traits and functioning, have neverbeen fully explored. Using satellite estimates documenting mostly the period 2005-2013, and accounting forscale interactions between the diurnal and annual cycles, we demonstrate that the seasonality of sunlight levelsstrongly vary across Central Africa forests. Gabon stands out with a main dry season strongly light-deficient,cool and moist. An original map of terra firme forest types developed by CIRAD shows that most of theevergreen forests of Central Africa develop in Gabon. We postulate that despite a mean annual precipitationamount below 2000 mm/yr, the Gabonese …

Analysis of the linkages between rainfall and land surface conditions in the West African monsoon through CMAP, ERS-WSC, and NOAA-AVHRR data

International audience; The European Remote Sensing Wind Scatterometer (ERS-WSC) backscattering coefficient, NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis Precipitation ( CMAP) precipitation data sets are studied over the period August 1991 to December 2000 to document ( 1) the interannual and intra-annual evolutions of vegetation photosynthetic activity and soil-vegetation water content over West Africa and ( 2) their two-way links with precipitation. Over the Sahel, at interannual timescales the strongest relationships between vegetation, soil moisture, and precipitation are observed …

Évolution récente des précipitations de mars-mai en Afrique de l'est : configurations spatiales et évolution subsaisonnière.

6 pages; International audience; S'appuyant sur des données stationnelles de précipitations sur la période 1961-2012, l'objectif de cette étude est 1/ deconfirmer la baisse des pluies au cours des Long Rains sur la décennie 2000 détectée par Lyon et DeWitt (2012) à partir dedonnées en points de grille ; 2/ comprendre sa déclinaison à l'échelle intraannuelle sur la base des scénarios pluviométriquessubsaisonniers développés par Moron et al. (2013) ; et 3/ évaluer son impact sur les écoagrosystèmes. Cette baisse se confirmedans les données stationnelles, mais de façon moins marquée que dans les données grillées. Elle affecte plus fortement les stationsles plus sèches et le mois d'avril, pic c…

Diagnostic de la variabilité interannuelle des sorties CORDEX-Africa sur le secteur de l’Afrique du Sud.

7 pages; International audience; La variabilité interannuelle des précipitations issues de dix modèles climatiques régionaux du projet CORDEXAfricaa été analysée sur la région d’Afrique australe située au sud de 20°S et au cours de la période 1990-2007. Nous avonstout d’abord diagnostiqué que la majorité des modèles sous-estime légèrement la variance relative des cumuls annuels,comparativement aux observations, mais reproduit correctement la distribution spatiale avec une variabilité relative plusforte sur les régions les plus sèches. À propos des tendances sur la période, même s’il existe une certaine hétérogénéitéintermodèles, la plupart des MCR présentent, comme les observations, des coe…

Climatic gradients along the windward slopes of Mount Kenya and their implication for crop risks. Part 1: climate variability

In tropical mountains, the way topographical gradients translate in terms of intra-seasonal and interannual climate variability (especially rainfall and evapotranspiration) is relatively unknown, yet it is an important issue for agriculture and food security. The eastern slopes of Mount Kenya, in East Africa, with their wide range of agro-ecological conditions, are appropriate for the study of these aspects. Daily (monthly) rainfall data from 11 (24) stations at different elevations and exposures are collected for the period 1961-2006. For the elevation belts suitable for farming and agro-pastoral activities, mostly below 2000 m, it is found that not all rainfall characteristics co-vary wit…

Assessment of the ENSEMBLES stream 2 and comparison with PRESAO forecasts

Retrospective forecasts of Sahelian summer rainfall by the use of a MOS approach and DEMETER data

Dyvalocca : un projet pour l'étude des nuages bas de saison sèche sur la façade atlantique de l'Afrique centrale et de leur impact bioclimatique sur les forêts sempervirentes.

Low-level clouds are key components of the climate but are not well represented in weather and climate models. Recently it has been shown that an extensive low-level cloud cover develops during the June-September main dry season in western equatorial Africa, from the coastal plains of Gabon and Congo-Brazzaville to the inland plateaus downstream of the low-mountain crests. Such a cloudy main dry season is unique in the moist Tropics and is likely to explain the presence of the densest and evergreen forests of Central Africa as evapotranspiration is low and the quality of light is high. The ANR-DFG funded “DYVALOCCA” project will conduct from 2020 to 2022 a field campaign, raise existing in-…

Impact des précipitations sur l'activité photosynthétique de la végétation en Afrique semi-aride sub-saharienne

National audience

État actuel des réseaux de mesures éco-climatiques en Afrique centrale : les ambitions du projet de recherche international FORGREENE.

This work presents an overview of spatio-temporal quality andspatial density of rainfall networks of Cameroon, Gabon, Congo, CAP and DRC, particularly in the recentperiod (1973-2014) through the GSOD international database. Faced with enormous gaps observed, theseresults will help to select metrological and analytical orientations in FORGREENE project (Tropical forestsgreeness and cloudiness in Central Africa: present conditions and future evolution). A comparison with rainfallsatellite estimates (RFE type) also indicates their great potential, provided they are based on in situ validations.

Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) : an integrated project for understanding of the West African climate system and its human dimension

International audience; The intraseasonal time scale is critical in West Africa where resources are highly rainfall dependent. Three main modes of variability have been identified, two with a mean periodicity of 15 days and one with a mean periodicity around 40 days. These modes have a regional scale and can strongly influence precipitation and convective activity. They are mainly controlled by atmospheric dynamics and land-surface interactions. They can also modulate the very specific phase of the African summer monsoon onset. A better knowledge of the mechanisms controlling this scale is necessary to improve its predictability.

Analysis of cloudiness and solar radiation diurnal cycles for a better understanding of the forests greenness mean annual cycle in Central Africa.

To better understand the Central Africa forests sensitivity toclimate variability, we jointly analyse the mean annual cycles of greenness, rainfall, cloudiness and solarradiation for the target region 0-5°N/12-19°E using high resolution satellite data. Our results demonstrate theimportance of the diurnal scale for understanding the mean annual cycles of rainfall, cloudiness and solarradiation and the way they shape those of forest greenness. They also suggest that whereas the March-Mayrainy season appears optimal for greenness especially because of favorable light conditions, water availabilityis the main controlling factor in December-January the main dry season and in February at the star…

The West African monsoon in ENSEMBLES stream 1

AMMA/ENSEMBLES

Performance of DEMETER calibration for rainfall forecasting purposes: Application to the July–August Sahelian rainfall

International audience; This work assesses and compares the skill of direct and model-output-statistics (MOS) calibrated hindcasts of the July–August rainfall amounts for the dry period 1980–2000 over the Sahel issued from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) experiment, with the aim to highlight among the simulated parameters, i.e., those potentially relevant for rainfall forecasts purposes. Three approaches were used: the DEMETER (1) direct rainfall, (2) MOS-calibrated rainfall, and (3) MOS-calibrated atmospheric dynamics and energy. Canonical correlation analyses (CCA) were employed in the two latter approaches to calib…

An improvement of June-September rainfall forecasting in the Sahel based upon region April-May moist static energy content (1968-1997)

This study provides statistical evidence that June–September Sahelian rainfall hindcasts currently based on oceanic thermal predictors apprehend more the negative trend than the interannual rainfall variations. Four physically meaningful predictors of June–September Sahel rainfall are first selected through the near-surface April–May information and several experimental hindcasts provided. We then discuss the skills achieved using regression techniques and cross-validated discriminant functions. In that context, 8/11 of the driest seasons and 8/10 of the wettest are correctly predicted. Finally using completely independent training and working periods we show that better and significant hin…

Evolution of dry season low cloud cover over the Atlantic coast of Central Africa from diurnal to interannual scale

Despite its bioclimatic importance, few studies have focused on the stratiform low-level cloud cover ofthe dry season (June-September) of the Atlantic coast of Central Africa. Using in-situ data documenting theperiod 1971-2019, we show that this cloud cover is underestimated by SAFNWC satellite observations andCMIP6 models. We identify three types of days: clear, cloudy at night and totally cloudy, the latterbeing more frequent on the coast and inland, to the windward of the Cristal and Chaillu Mountains. Onan interannual scale, temperature anomalies in the South Tropical Atlantic, the equatorial Pacific and theCongo Basin, by modulating the meridional and zonal circulation cells, influence…

Caractérisation de la variabilité inter et intra-annuelle du NDVI en Afrique de l'ouest sur la période 1982-2002 à l'aide des données NOAA-AVHRR.

28 novembre-2 décembre 2005; International audience

Spatial coherence of monsoon onset over Western and Central Sahel (1950-2000)

Abstract The spatial coherence of boreal monsoon onset over the western and central Sahel (Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso) is studied through the analysis of daily rainfall data for 103 stations from 1950 to 2000. Onset date is defined using a local agronomic definition, that is, the first wet day (>1 mm) of 1 or 2 consecutive days receiving at least 20 mm without a 7-day dry spell receiving less than 5 mm in the following 20 days. Changing either the length or the amplitude of the initial wet spell, or both, or the length of the following dry spell modifies the long-term mean of local-scale onset date but has only a weak impact either on its interannual variability or its spatial coher…

Climatic gradients along the windward slopes of Mount Kenya and their implication for crop risks. Part 2 : crop sensitivity.

16 pages; International audience; Mount Kenya is an equatorial mountain whose climatic setting is fairly simple (two rainy seasons in March–May, the Long Rains, and October–December, the Short Rains) though concealing significant spatial variations related to elevation and aspect (part I, Camberlin et al., 2014). This part II is dedicated to the sensitivity of sorghum yields to climate variability in space and time, with a focus on the intra-seasonal characteristics of the rainy seasons. To that aim we use the crop model SARRA-H calibrated for the region and fed with rainfall, temperature, wind speed, humidity and solar radiation data over the period 1973–2001 at three stations located on t…

Determinants of the interannual relationships between remote sensed photosynthetic activity and rainfall in tropical Africa

International audience; The response of photosynthetic activity to interannual rainfall variations in Africa South of the Sahara is examined using 20 years (1981-2000) of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) AVHRR data. Linear correlations and regressions were computed between annual NDVI and annual rainfall at a 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution, based on two gridded precipitation datasets (Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation [CMAP] and Climatic Research Unit [CRU]). The spatial patterns were then examined to detect how they relate to the mean annual rainfall amounts, land-cover types as from the Global Land Cover 2000 data set, soil properties and soil typ…

Vegetation - atmosphere feedback in West Africa on time scales of weeks to months

Rainfall exerts a strong control on the seasonal evolution of vegetation across West Africa. In turn vegetation, and the root zone soil moisture which influences its growth, controls the fluxes of water and heat back into the atmosphere. This provides a mechanism for the land to feed back on the large-scale circulation over the course of the annual cycle. In this study, satellite data are combined with the outputs from land surface models and atmospheric reanalysis to develop an overview of where and when such feedbacks can occur in the region. The influence of rainfall on vegetation cover is re-examined using satellite data from the period 2000-8. MODIS Normalised Vegetation Difference Ind…

A statistical investigation of Sahelian onset predictability using NCEP/DOE2 reanalysis (1979-2004)

International audience

Seasonal evolution of boundary layer heat content in the West African monsoon from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1968-1998)

Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) dataset over the period 1968–1998, the basic relationships between July and September monsoon circulation variations over West Africa and monthly meridional distribution of moist static energy (MSE) content in the boundary layer are portrayed. Wet minus dry stratified analyses relative to Sudan–Sahel rainfall show that particular April–June meridional patterns of near-surface MSE contents, south of 10°N, could control the amplitude and timing of the monsoon rainy season. Relative to the driest July–September situations, the wettest ones have been, on average, preceded by delayed but…

Characterization of the interannual and intraseasonal variability of West African vegetation between 1982 and 2002 by means of NOAA AVHRR NDVI data

AbstractThe interannual and intraseasonal variability of West African vegetation over the period 1982–2002 is studied using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR).The novel independent component analysis (ICA) technique is applied to extract the main modes of the interannual variability of the vegetation, among which two modes are worth describing. The first component (IC1) describes NDVI variability over the Sahel from August to October. A strong photosynthetic activity over the Sahel is related to above-normal convection and rainfall within the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in summertime and is partly associated …

Early Warning Systems for Food Security in West Africa: Evolution, Achievements and Challenges

In West Africa, early warning systems (EWSs) for food security have been widely recognized to have contributed, in the last 20 years, to an improved ability to deal with famine emergencies. Nevertheless, despite the advancements in understanding of the environmental and socio-economic dynamics and despite the improved technologies, tackling food security remains a difficult task for decision makers as demonstrated by local food crises in many countries of the region. African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis, while improving the understanding of the monsoon system, allowed us to better orient research challenges to provide EWS with improved products, effectively meeting the needs of end-us…

Compared regimes of NDVI and rainfall in semi‐arid regions of Africa

Bi‐monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at an 8 km spatial resolution from the advanced very high resolution radiometers (AVHRR) was used from 1981 to 1995 to analyse the vegetation response to rainfall supply in semi‐arid regions of Africa. Within the 200–600 mm annual rainfall belt, for which the apparent NDVI response to rainfall was the strongest, three regions were selected which exhibited different patterns in their NDVI regimes and/or relationships with rainfall. The regions, located in western, southern and eastern Africa, were split into coherent sub‐regions in terms of mean regime of photosynthetic activity through a cluster analysis. Overall, intra‐regional diffe…

Seasonal reproducibility and predictability of the West African Monsoon in coupled GCMs

In the framework of the ENSEMBLES FP6 project, an ensemble prediction system based on five different state-of-the-art European coupled models has been developed. This study evaluates the performance of these models for forecasting the West African monsoon (WAM) at the monthly time scale. From simulations started the 1 May of each year and covering the period 1991–2001, the reproducibility and potential predictability (PP) of key parameters of the WAM—rainfall, zonal and meridional wind at four levels from the surface to 200 hPa, and specific humidity, from July to September—are assessed. The Sahelian rainfall mode of variability is not accurately reproduced contrary to the Guinean rainfall …

Ethnographic context and spatial coherence of climate indicators for farming communities : a multi-regional comparative assessment

Accurate seasonal predictions of rainfall may reduce climatic risks that farmers are usually faced with across the tropical and subtropical zones. However, although regional-scale seasonal amounts have regularly been forecasted since 1997/98, the practical use of these seasonal predictions is still limited by myriad factors. This paper synthesizes the main resultsof a multi-disciplinary ethnographic and climatic project (PICREVAT). Its main objective was to seek the climatic information ? beyond the seasonal amounts ? critical for crops, both as an actual constraint to crop yields and as identified by the current and past practices and perceptions of farmers. A second goal was to confront t…

Evolution de la cohérence spatiale et de la prévisibilité des précipitations sahéliennes au cours du cycle saisonnier (observations et simulations forcées ECHAM).

Spring to summer changes in the West African monsoon through NCEP/NCAR reanalyses (1968–1998)

[1] This article focuses on the spring to summer evolutions of the West African monsoon from an energetic point of view; it uses NCEP/NCAR reanalyses along with observed and simulated rainfall data over the period 1968–1998. The results show that the West African monsoon can be viewed as a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system phased with the zenithal evolution of solar radiation which maintains its thermally direct circulation by pumping, from the surface, enthalpy mainly in spring and latent energy in summer. In this context the horizontal energy gradients in the boundary layer play a key role during the spring to summer transition. At the beginning of spring, the moist static energy (MSE)…

A copula-based approach for assessing flood protection overtopping associated with a seasonal flood forecast in Niamey, West Africa

Flood is one of the most important natural disasters that cause huge loss of life and properties every year around the world. Moreover, the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies pointed out that floods were by far the greatest cause of homelessness. In West Africa, many countries are damaged from flooding almost every season. Thus, this study aimed to set a seasonal flood forecast model and carried out an evaluation of the level of risk associated with each seasonal forecast. HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System) was used to develop a hydro-dynamical model of Niger river on a 160km reach (80km upstream to 80kmdownstream of Niamey), the…

Précipitations tropicales : quelle prévisibilité potentielle à l'échelle intrasaisonnière et locale ?

6 pages; International audience; Les précipitations tropicales résultent de phénomènes imbriqués. Les cumuls saisonniers à l'échelle régionale permettent de filtrer une partie des variations spatiales liées notamment aux échelles les plus fines et ainsi de magnifier l'action des forçages plus vastes. La variabilité interannuelle des totaux saisonniers est partiellement prévisible à partir de l'état antérieur des températures de surface océanique. Cependant, ce total saisonnier ne constitue pas toujours l'élément le plus prévisible, notamment dans le cas où les pluies les plus abondantes en moyenne sont fortement incohérentes. La saison février-juin au Kenya et au nord de la Tanzanie montre …

Cohérence spatiale et prévisibilité potentielle du démarrage de la saison des pluies en Afrique soudano-sahélienne

The influence of ENSO on winter rainfall in South Africa

Whereas the impact of ENSO on the African summer rainfall regions is largely documented and still regularly investigated, little is known about its impact on the winter rainfall regions located at the southwestern and northwestern tips of Africa. Yet, these regions are densely inhabited and are net exporters of high-quality agricultural products. Here we analyze the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and South Africa austral winter rainfall using a 682 raingauges daily rainfall database documenting the period 1950–1999. The May, June and July (MJJ) seasonal rainfall amount shows a positive correlation with the Nino3.4 index that becomes significant since the so-called …

Forecasting the vegetation photosynthetic activity over the Sahel: a Model Output Statistics approach

The predictability of the mean August–September photosynthetic activity of vegetation over the Sahel for the period 1982–2002 is explored through a Model Output Statistics approach using ECHAM4.5 retrospective forecasts. Given the poor ability of Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) to correctly simulate rainfall over the Sahel, the stress is put on using atmospheric dynamics alone. The mean July–September predicted fields of zonal wind at 600 hPa, and humidity flux at 850 hPa, are selected because of their key role in the West African Monsoon system and their consistency in AGCMs. Coupled modes of NDVI/atmospheric dynamics are extracted using Canonical Correlation Analyses perfor…

Predictability of NDVI in semi-arid West, East and South Africa