0000000000364371
AUTHOR
Sandra Rome
Uses and limits of thermal indices: the case of Sahel
International audience; Our main goal here is to analyse extreme heat waves (HWs) in the Sahel (13°N-18°N; 16°W-30°E), using different thermal indices. In the ACASIS project funded bythe French “Agence Nationale de la Recherche”, HWs analyses are characterized forthe first time during the hottest season in the Sahel, using the Global Summary of theDay (GSOD) synoptic observations during April-May-June 1973-2013. Such extremehigh temperatures are usually defined by 3 criteria: 1/ Their low probability ofoccurrence: less than the 10% of the days. The use of absolute thresholds,associated with heat budget and physiological impacts, could be an alternative(Seneviratne et al., 2012). 2/ Their in…
Trends of mean temperatures and warm extremes in northern tropical Africa (1961-2014) from observed and PPCA-reconstructed time series
Trends in daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures and indices of warm extremes are studied in tropical North Africa, west of the eastern African highlands, from 1961 to 2014. The analysis is based on the concatenation and cross-checking of two observed databases. Due to the large number of missing entries (~25%), a statistical infilling using probabilistic principal component analysis was applied. Averaged over 90 stations, the linear trends of annual mean TX and TN equal respectively +0.021 °C/yr and +0.028 °C/yr. The frequency of very hot days (TX > 35°C) and tropical nights (TN > 20°C), as well as the frequency of daily TX and TN above the 90th percentile (p90) (“warm days” and …
Durée et fréquence des vagues de chaleur en Afrique tropicale septentrionale selon 5 indices de chaleur
Thermal extremes generate health risks that are increasingly taken into account, including in tropical Africa. This work compares the duration and the frequency of spring heat waves (HWs) in West Africa according to 5 indices: Warm Spell (WS), Heat Index (HI) with and without the relative humidity, Apparent Temperature (AT), and Excess Heat Factor (EHF). The daily relative humidity and temperature data (minimum, maximum, dew point are provided by the GSOD database for the period 1973-2014 and cover 145 stations spread over a large African area (3-24°N; 24°W-36°E). The results show that the duration of the HWs is short on the coast (3 days) and they last longer inland the continent and in th…
Durée et fréquence des vagues de chaleur en Afrique tropicale septentrionale selon 5 indices de chaleur.
Thermal extremes generate health risks that are increasingly taken into account, including in tropical Africa. This work compares the duration and the frequency of spring heat waves (HWs) in West Africa according to 5 indices: Warm Spell (WS), Heat Index (HI) with and without the relative humidity, Apparent Temperature (AT), and Excess Heat Factor (EHF). The daily relative humidity and temperature data (minimum, maximum, dew point are provided by the GSOD database for the period 1973-2014 and cover 145 stations spread over a large African area (3-24°N; 24°W-36°E). The results show that the duration of the HWs is short on the coast (3 days) and they last longer inland the continent and in th…
Les vagues de chaleur au Sahel : caractérisation, mécanismes, prévisibilité.
The mechanisms controlling Sahelian heat wave (HW) variability are examined on the period 1979-2014 using the GSOD observational database and ERA-Interim reanalyses. HW events are analyzed through all terms of the atmospheric energy balance, showing a predominant role of incoming shortwave radiation on daily maximum temperature (Tx) and atmospheric water vapor on minimum temperature (Tn). The low-frequency warming trend, not explained by the previous terms, is thought to relate to the increase of greenhouse gases concentrations, due to anthropogenic emissions. The predictability of Sahelian HW events is assessed for lead times reaching up to 15 days. The model's skill, biases and uncertaint…