Climate Change Impact on the Hydropower Potential in Agder County

Climate change poses significant uncertainties for the future of hydropower, both in terms of challenges and opportunities. This study uses an educational version of the HBV model to investigate climate change impact on the hydropower potential in Agder County over the next century. The results show that the model tends to overestimate the observed values, but results in a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 73.4\% for calibration and 77.7\% for validation with a correlation of 89.0\%. This indicates that the model's simplicity does not surpass its accuracy. For annual discharge the study found that the RCP4.5 scenario predicted a 9\% increase close to 2100. The RCP8.5 scenario projected a more si…