0000000000388035
AUTHOR
Daniel Porath
Basel II and bank lending to emerging markets: Evidence from the German banking sector
Abstract This paper investigates whether the new Basel Accord will induce a change in bank lending to emerging markets using a comprehensive new data set on German banks’ foreign exposure. We test two interlinked hypotheses on the conditions under which the change in the regulatory capital would leave lending flows unaffected. This would be the case if (i) the new regulatory capital requirement remains below the economic capital and (ii) banks’ economic capital to emerging markets already adequately reflects risk. On both accounts the evidence indicates that the new Basel Accord should have a limited effect on lending to emerging markets.
Applying the Bass model to pharmaceuticals in emerging markets
Albeit the Bass model was not designed for predicting sales of newly launched drugs, pharmaceutical companies commonly use it for this purpose, mainly because of its good predictive power. Empirical experience, however, mainly refers to mature markets and it is unclear how the model behaves in emerging markets. We try to fill this gap in the literature by comparing the estimation results of the Bass model between emerging markets and mature markets in a big dataset including more than 5,000 new launches from different countries. Our results show a good performance of the model in emerging markets. Compared to mature markets the estimated parameters on average are the same, but there is a h…