Informal employment in developing countries
There is an ongoing debate among researchers and policy makers, whether informal sector employment is a result of competitive market forces or labor market segmentation. More recently it has been argued that none of the two theories sufficiently explains informal employment, but that the informal sector shows a heterogenous structure. For some workers the informal sector is an attractive employment opportunity, whereas for others – rationed out of the formal sector – the informal sector is a strategy of last resort. To test the empirical relevance of this hypothesis we formulate an econometric model which allows for several unobserved segments within the informal sector and apply it to the …
On the Estimation of the Volatility-Growth Link
It is common practice to estimate the volatility-growth link by specifying a standard growth equation such that the variance of the error term appears as an explanatory variable in this growth equation. The variance in turn is modeled by a second equation. Hardly any of existing applications of this framework includes exogenous controls in this second variance equation. Our theoretical findings suggest that the absence of relevant explanatory variables in the variance equation leads to a biased and inconsistent estimate of the volatility-growth link. Our simulations show that this effect is large. Once the appropriate controls are included in the variance equation consistency is restored. I…
The Employment Effect of Reforming a Public Employment Agency
By how much does an increase in operating effectiveness of a public employment agency (PEA) and a reduction of unemployment benefits reduce unemployment? Using a recent labour market reform in Germany as background, we find that an enhanced effectiveness of the PEA explains about 20% of the observed post-reform unemployment decline. The role of unemployment benefit reduction explains just about 5% of the observed decline. Due to disincentive effects resulting from the reform, the reform of the PEA could have had an even higher impact on unemployment reduction if there had been less focus on long-term unemployed workers.
ESTIMATING INCENTIVE AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF NONSTATIONARY UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
The distribution of unemployment duration in our equilibrium matching model with spell-dependent unemployment benefits displays time-varying exit rates. Building on semi-Markov processes, we translate these rates into an expression for the aggregate unemployment rate. Structural estimation using German microdata allows us to discuss the effects of an unemployment benefit reform (Hartz IV). The reform reduced unemployment by less than 0.1 percentage points. Contrary to general beliefs, the net wage for most skill and regional groups increased. Taking the insurance effect of unemployment benefits into account, however, the reform is welfare reducing for 76% of workers.