Explaining Individual and Collective Programming Students’ Behavior by Interpreting a Black-Box Predictive Model

Predicting student performance as early as possible and analysing to which extent initial student behaviour could lead to failure or success is critical in introductory programming (CS1) courses, for allowing prompt intervention in a move towards alleviating their high failure rate. However, in CS1 performance prediction, there is a serious lack of studies that interpret the predictive model’s decisions. In this sense, we designed a long-term study using very fine-grained log-data of 2056 students, collected from the first two weeks of CS1 courses. We extract features that measure how students deal with deadlines, how they fix errors, how much time they spend programming, and so forth. Subs…