0000000000458612
AUTHOR
Juan Javier Miró
Future Projection of precipitation changes in the Júcar and Segura River Basins (Iberian Peninsula) by CMIP5 GCMs Local Downscaling
The basins of the Júcar and Segura rivers, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, present a special water problem and are of particular interest regarding climate change. These basins are very vulnerable to a possible scenario of decreasing water resources. Recent studies on historic rainfall since 1955 have indicated an ongoing loss of precipitation in their headwaters, especially in the case of the Júcar river. The aim of the present study is to perform climate projections for the precipitation variable for several future periods (2021–2040, 2051–2070, 2081–2100) and emission scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 8.5) within the Júcar and Segura River Basin authorities. For this purpose, a s…
Multiple imputation of rainfall missing data in the Iberian Mediterranean context
Abstract Given the increasing need for complete rainfall data networks, in recent years have been proposed diverse methods for filling gaps in observed precipitation series, progressively more advanced that traditional approaches to overcome the problem. The present study has consisted in validate 10 methods (6 linear, 2 non-linear and 2 hybrid) that allow multiple imputation, i.e., fill at the same time missing data of multiple incomplete series in a dense network of neighboring stations. These were applied for daily and monthly rainfall in two sectors in the Jucar River Basin Authority (east Iberian Peninsula), which is characterized by a high spatial irregularity and difficulty of rainfa…
Fine-scale estimations of bioclimatic change in the Valencia region, Spain
Recent advances in statistical downscaling have allowed the reconstruction of temperatures for the complete 1948–2011 period in a spatial resolution of 90 m and without gaps for the Valencian Community (Spain) and bordering areas. It presently enables analyses in this region, which allows the determination of recent temperature changes at subregional and local scales. The present work focuses on obtaining the thermicity index according to Rivas-Martínez, a well-known indicator of different thermotypes associated with bioclimatic horizons. The change in this index, which has happened in the region between 1948 and 2011, was calculated by generating fine-scale maps of the potential extension …
Improved meteorology and surface energy fluxes in mesoscale modelling using adjusted initial vertical soil moisture profiles
Abstract. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being used for different and diverse purposes, ranging from atmospheric and dispersion of pollutants forecasting to agricultural meteorology and ecological modelling as well as for hydrological purposes, among others. The current paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the RAMS forecasts, comparing the results not only with observed standard surface meteorological variables, measured at FLUXNET stations and other portable and permanent weather stations located over the region of study, but also with non-standard observed variables, such as the surface energy fluxes, with the aim of evaluating the surface energy budget and its…
Episodios de precipitación torrencial en el este y sureste ibéricos y su relación con la variabilidad intraanual de la oscilación del Mediterráneo occidental (WeMO) entre 1950 y 2016
Ponencia presentada en: XI Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Cartagena entre el 17 y el 19 de octubre de 2018. [ES]La relación de la Oscilación del Mediterráneo Occidental (WeMO) con la ocurrencia e intensidad de las precipitaciones en el litoral mediterráneo ibérico ha sido demostrada en numerosos trabajos. Entre 1950 y 2016 se registraron 239 episodios de precipitación torrencial extrema (≥200 mm/24 horas) en las cuencas hidrográficas del Júcar y del Segura (3,6 casos al año). El 29,3% de estos eventos tuvieron lugar con una fase de la WeMO fuertemente negativa, el 37,5% en una fase negativa y el 28,3% en una fase ligeramente negativa. Solo el 7,9% de los epi…
Spatial and temporal rainfall changes in the Júcar and Segura basins (1955-2016): Fine-scale trends
A daily rainfall database covering the Júcar and Segura river basin authorities (east Iberian Peninsula, Spain) with high spatial density without gaps (890 series) has been created for the complete period 1955–2016. This has allowed a trend analysis of precipitation and dry/wet spells with a better spatial detail and coverage of key headwaters sectors than previous studies in this area. Results show significant negative trends for precipitation prevailing in Júcar area (an annual average loss of 51 mm), especially towards its north interior headwaters. For this last one the annual loss exceeds 200 mm (20% of precipitation). By contrast, certain pre‐littoral sectors and most of the Segura ar…
A component-based approximation for trend detection of intense rainfall in the Spanish Mediterranean coast
Rainfall behavior is a fundamental issue in areas with scarce and irregular amounts, such as the Spanish Mediterranean region. We identified 12 spatial patterns that characterized 899 torrential precipitation events (≥150 mm in 24 h) that occurred in the 3,537 rainy precipitation series in the period 1950–2020. Three of these components––eastern and ESE––showed positive and significant trends in their accumulated volumes. We then characterized the mean synoptic causes of the 10 most intense events in each component at both mean sea-level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height, and also the integrated water-vapor transport between 1,000 and 300 hPa. We found a clear spatial distribution of…
Comparative assessment of RAMS and WRF short-term forecasts over Eastern Iberian Peninsula using various in-situ observations, remote sensing products and uncoupled land surface model datasets
The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale models are being used for weather and air quality studies as well as forecasting tools in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. In the current study, we perform a comparative assessment of these models under distinct typical atmospheric conditions, classified according to the dominant wind flow and cloudiness, over Eastern Iberian Peninsula. This study is focused on the model representation of key physical processes in terms of meteorology and surface variables during a 7-days period in summer 2011. The hourly outputs produced by these two models are compared not only with observed…
Improved meteorology and surface fluxes in mesoscale modelling using adjusted initial vertical soil moisture profiles
The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being used for different and diverse purposes, ranging from atmospheric and dispersion of pollutants forecasting to agricultural meteorology and ecological modelling as well as for hydrological purposes, among others. The current paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the RAMS forecasts, comparing the results not only with observed standard surface meteorological variables, measured at FLUXNET stations and other portable and permanent weather stations located over the region of study, but also with non-standard observed variables, such as the surface energy fluxes, with the aim of evaluating the surface energy budget and its relation …