0000000000460882
AUTHOR
Kotaro Ono
Durant_CapelinCod_BiolLett_Aug2022_Supplementary_revision2 from Empirical evidence of nonlinearity in bottom up effect in a marine predator–prey system
Figure S1. Sensitivity test of the process to observation error variance ratio to the estimated process and observation error variance. Figure S2. Comparison of the estimated posteriors process errors for cod and capelin showing no significant correlation. Figure S3. Calculated log-likelihood for each potential threshold value within the 20 and 80 percentiles. Figure S4. Posteriors distribution for of the models’ parameters with indicated the Highest Density Interval (HDI) and the zero line (dotted line). Figure S5. Posterior distribution of Bayesian R square for the capelin (plot A) and cod (plot B). Methods. Codes developed for the analysis
Possible adverse impact of contaminants on Atlantic cod population dynamics in coastal ecosystems
While many in-laboratory ecotoxicological studies have shown the adverse impact of pollutants to the fitness of an individual, direct evidence from the field on the population dynamics of wildlife animals has been lacking. Here, we provide empirical support for a negative effect of pollution on Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) population dynamics in coastal waters of Norway by combining unique time series of juvenile cod abundance, body size, environmental concentration of toxic contaminants and a spatially structured population dynamics model. The study shows that mercury concentration might have decreased the reproductive potential of cod in the region despite the general decline in the env…
Non‐linearity in interspecific interactions in response to climate change: cod and haddock as an example
Climate change has profound ecological effects, yet our understanding of how trophic interactions among species are affected by climate change is still patchy. The sympatric Atlantic haddock and cod are co-occurring across the North Atlantic. They compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter. Climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. Particularly, the increase in sea temperature (ST) has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. We used 33-year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analy…
Management strategy analysis for multispecies fisheries, including technical interactions and human behavior in modelling management decisions and fishing
A multispecies fishery management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework based on the example of the groundfish fishery in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region of Alaska was used to examine the interplay between a bycatch species and three groundfish species. The study introduces a framework for a realistic multispecies fishery MSE by accounting for fleet dynamics, multispecies fishery quota allocation, and the temporal dynamics of technical interactions. The quota allocation and the fleet dynamics models were implemented using linear programming, and regression approaches were used to make a realistic projection of future users’ behavioral response to changes in the fishery. The models…
Supplementary material from Possible adverse impact of contaminants on Atlantic cod population dynamics in coastal ecosystems
Supporting information (text, figures, and tables) to the main text
Integrating data from multiple surveys and accounting for spatio-temporal correlation to index the abundance of juvenile Pacific halibut in Alaska
Abstract Survey indices of abundance are one of the main sources of information used in fish stock assessment. Many regions around the world, including the United States and Europe, develop survey protocols to aid in creating these indices. As ecosystems function as a continuum across borders, there is a need to develop a standardized framework for combining information across surveys. Such methods could help resolve differences in timing, spatial coverage, catchability, and selectivity among surveys. We present a method that uses survey data by length class. These data come from several regional surveys each with differing sampling designs, spatial and temporal coverage, and sampling gear.…
Coastal Research Seen Through an Early Career Lens—A Perspective on Barriers to Interdisciplinarity in Norway
The value of interdisciplinarity for solving complex coastal problems is widely recognized. Many early career researchers (ECRs) therefore actively seek this type of collaboration through choice or necessity, for professional development or project funding. However, establishing and conducting interdisciplinary research collaborations as an ECR has many challenges. Here, we identify these challenges through the lens of ECRs working in different disciplines on a common ecosystem, the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. The most densely populated coastline in Norway, the Skagerrak coast, is experiencing a multitude of anthropogenic stressors including fishing, aquaculture, eutrophication, climate chan…
Direct and indirect effects of sea ice cover on major zooplankton groups and planktivorous fishes in the Barents Sea
AbstractReductions in Arctic sea ice affect marine food webs through a multitude of direct and indirect effects. We here analysed direct, indirect, and delayed associations between winter sea ice cover and year-to-year changes in biomasses of the main zooplankton groups (copepods, krill, amphipods) and planktivorous fishes (capelin, polar cod) in the central and northern Barents Sea from 1980 to 2015. Climate effects and species interactions were estimated jointly in a Bayesian state-space model framework. We found that population biomass of capelin increased in years with low sea ice cover, while biomasses of copepods and amphipods decreased. Furthermore, results suggested strong bottom-up…
The effect of random and density‐dependent variation in sampling efficiency on variance of abundance estimates from fishery surveys
Abundance indices (AIs) provide information on population abundance and trends over time, while AI variance (AIV) provides information on reliability or quality of the AI. AIV is an important output from surveys and is commonly used in formal assessments of survey quality, in survey comparison studies, and in stock assessments. However, uncertainty in AIV estimates is poorly understood and studies on the precision and bias in survey AIV estimates are lacking. Typically, AIV estimates are “design based” and are derived from sampling theory under some aspect of randomized samples. Inference on population density in these cases can be confounded by unaccounted process errors such as those due …
Empirical evidence of non-linearity in bottom-up effect in a marine predator-prey system
Strength of species interaction may have profound effects on population dynamics. Empirical estimates of interaction strength is often based on the assumption that the interaction strengths are constant. Barents Sea cod and capelin are two fish populations for which such interaction has been acknowledged and used, under the assumption of constant interaction strength, when studying their population dynamics. However, species interaction can often be non-linear in marine ecosystems and might profoundly change our understanding of food chains. Analysing 37 years long survey time series in the Arcto-Boreal Barents Sea with a state-space modelling framework, we demonstrate that the effect of ca…
Improving risk assessments in conservation ecology
Conservation efforts and management decisions on the living environment of our planet often rely on the results from statistical models. Yet, these models are imperfect and quantification of risk associated with the estimate of management-relevant quantities becomes crucial in providing robust advice. Here we demonstrate that estimates of risk themselves could be substantially biased but by combining data fitting with an extensive simulation–estimation procedure, one can back-calculate the correct values. We apply the method to 627 time series of population abundance across four taxa using the Gompertz state-space model as an example. We find that the risk of large bias in population status…