0000000000460887
AUTHOR
Nils Chr. Stenseth
Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years
Significance The variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is important for the functioning of ecological and societal systems at regional to continental scales, but the long-term evolution and interannual variability of this system is not well understood. Here, we present a stable isotope–based reconstruction of ASM variability covering 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a gradual drying trend, a rapid drop in mean annual precipitation (>40%) toward persistently drier conditions occurred in ∼1675 BCE. This megadrought caused regional forest deterioration and enhanced aeolian activity affecting Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE triggered wa…
Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: Palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium
Abstract Background Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans. Results We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained…
Long-term decrease in sex-specific natural mortality of European lobster within a marine protected area
Marine protected areas (MPAs) and marine reserves hold promise as tools for nature conservation and fisheries management, but data on long-term demographic effects are still sparse. Here, we use a unique capture-mark-recapture data set from Kavra, an MPA on the west coast of Sweden where fishing for European lobster Homarus gammarus has been banned since 1989, to directly quantify annual survival probabilities in the absence of harvest mortality. The non-migratory behaviour of this species allowed multiple recaptures and releases of a large num- ber of individuals within the MPA. We found strong evidence for a long-term decrease in sex - specific natural mortality throughout the study perio…
Ecosystem processes are rarely included in tactical fisheries management
Fish stock productivity, and thereby sensitivity to harvesting, depends on physical (e.g. ocean climate) and biological (e.g. prey availability, competition and predation) processes in the ecosystem. The combined impacts of such ecosystem processes and fisheries have lead to stock collapses across the world. While traditional fisheries management focuses on harvest rates and stock biomass, incorporating the impacts of such ecosystem processes are one of the main pillars of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). Although EAFM has been formally adopted widely since the 1990s, little is currently known to what extent ecosystem drivers of fish stock productivity are actually imp…
Supplementary material from Possible adverse impact of contaminants on Atlantic cod population dynamics in coastal ecosystems
Supporting information (text, figures, and tables) to the main text
Long live the alien: is high genetic diversity a pivotal aspect of crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) long-lasting and successful invasion?
AbstractStudying the evolutionary dynamics of an alien species surviving and continuing to expand after several generations can provide fundamental information on the relevant features of clearly successful invasions. Here, we tackle this task by investigating the dynamics of the genetic diversity in invasive crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) populations, introduced to Italy about 1500 years ago, which are still growing in size, distribution range and ecological niche. Using genome-wide RAD markers, we describe the structure of the genetic diversity and the demographic dynamics of theH. cristatainvasive populations and compare their genetic diversity with that of native African populatio…
Stabilizing selection on Atlantic cod supergenes through a millennium of extensive exploitation
Life on Earth has been characterized by recurring cycles of ecological stasis and disruption, relating biological eras to geological and climatic transitions through the history of our planet. Due to the increasing degree of ecological abruption caused by human influences many advocate that we now have entered the geological era of the Anthropocene, or “the age of man.” Considering the ongoing mass extinction and ecosystem reshuffling observed worldwide, a better understanding of the drivers of ecological stasis will be a requisite for identifying routes of intervention and mitigation. Ecosystem stability may rely on one or a few keystone species, and the loss of such species could potentia…
Causes and consequences of past and projected Scandinavian summer temperatures, 500-2100 AD
Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existin…
Habitat effects on population connectivity in a coastal seascape
Published version of an article from: Marine Ecology Progress Series. Also available from Inter Research: http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/meps10944 Knowing how population connectivity varies across heterogeneous habitats can provide insight into the mechanisms underlying population structuring, and ultimately help to inform conservation and management actions. We studied whether the spatial extent of connectivity in coastal Atlantic cod Gadus morhua varied with coastal topography, hypothesizing that connectivity during all life stages would be greater among open, exposed habitats compared to sheltered, fjord-like habitats. We tested this hypothesis using (1) an extensive mark-recapture data set t…
Genomic stability through time despite decades of exploitation in cod on both sides of the Atlantic
Significance Both theory and experiments suggest that fishing can drive the evolution of an earlier maturation age. However, determining whether changes in the wild are the result of fisheries-induced evolution has been difficult. Temporal, genome-wide datasets can directly reveal responses to selection. Here, we investigate the genomes of two wild Atlantic cod populations from samples that pre- and postdate periods of intensive fishing. Although phenotypic changes suggest fisheries-induced evolution, we do not find evidence for any strong genomic change or loss of genetic diversity. While evolution could have occurred through undetectable frequency changes at many loci, the irreversible lo…
Toward a holistic understanding of pastoralism
Pastoralism is globally significant in social, environmental, and economic terms. However, it experiences crises rooted in misconceptions and poor interdisciplinary understanding, while being largely overlooked in international sustainability forums and agendas. Here, we propose a transdisciplinary research approach to understand pastoralist transitions using (1) social, economic, and environmental dimensions, (2) diverse geographic contexts and scales to capture emerging properties, allowing for cross-system comparisons, and (3) timescales from the distant past to the present. We provide specific guidelines to develop indicators for this approach, within a social-ecological resilience anal…
Communication of Science Advice to Government
There are various ways to construct good processes for soliciting and understanding science. Our critique of advisory models finds that a well-supported chief science advisor (CSA) best ensures the provision of deliberative, informal, and emergency advice to government. Alternatively, bias, increasingly manifest as science-based advocacy, can hinder communication, diminish credibility, and distort scientific evidence.
Combined statistical and mechanistic modelling suggests food and temperature effects on survival of early life stages of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua)
Abstract Understanding the causes of the large interannual fluctuations in the recruitment to many marine fishes is a key challenge in fisheries ecology. We here propose that the combination of mechanistic and statistical modelling of the pelagic early life stages (ELS) prior to recruitment can be a powerful approach for improving our understanding of local-scale and population-scale dynamics. Specifically, this approach allows separating effects of ocean transport and survival, and thereby enhances the knowledge of the processes that regulate recruitment. We analyse data on the pelagic eggs, larvae and post-larvae of Northeast Arctic cod and on copepod nauplii, the main prey of the cod lar…
Spatial ecology of coastal Atlantic cod Gadus morhua associated with parasite load
Acoustic tags and receivers were used to investigate the spatial ecology of coastal Atlantic cod Gadus morhua (n = 32, mean fork length: 50 cm, range: 33–80 cm) on the Norwegian Skagerrak coast in 2012. Monthly home ranges (HR), swimming activity and depth use varied considerably among individuals and through the months of June, July and August. HR sizes for the period ranged from 0·25 to 5·20 km2 (mean = 2·30 km2). Two thirds of the tagged G. morhua were infected with black spot disease Cryptocotyle lingua parasites; these fish had larger HRs and occupied deeper water compared with non-infected fish. The infected fish also tended to be more active in terms of horizontal swimming. From an e…
Data from: Ancient DNA reveals the Arctic origin of Viking Age cod from Haithabu, Germany
Knowledge of the range and chronology of historic trade and long-distance transport of natural resources is essential for determining the impacts of past human activities on marine environments. However, the specific biological sources of imported fauna are often difficult to identify, in particular if species have a wide spatial distribution and lack clear osteological or isotopic differentiation between populations. Here, we report that ancient fish-bone remains, despite being porous, brittle, and light, provide an excellent source of endogenous DNA (15–46%) of sufficient quality for whole-genome reconstruction. By comparing ancient sequence data to that of modern specimens, we determine …
Data from: Genome architecture enables local adaptation of Atlantic cod despite high connectivity
Adaptation to local conditions is a fundamental process in evolution; however, mechanisms maintaining local adaptation despite high gene flow are still poorly understood. Marine ecosystems provide a wide array of diverse habitats that frequently promote ecological adaptation even in species characterized by strong levels of gene flow. As one example, populations of the marine fish Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) are highly connected due to immense dispersal capabilities but nevertheless show local adaptation in several key traits. By combining population genomic analyses based on 12K single nucleotide polymorphisms with larval dispersal patterns inferred using a biophysical ocean model, we show…
Data from: Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models
Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypoth…
Data from: Long live the alien: is high genetic diversity a pivotal aspect of crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) long-lasting and successful invasion?
Studying the evolutionary dynamics of an alien species surviving and continuing to expand after several generations can provide fundamental information on the relevant features of clearly successful invasions. Here, we tackle this task by investigating the dynamics of the genetic diversity in invasive crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) populations, introduced to Italy about 1500 years ago, which are still growing in size, distribution range and ecological niche. Using genome-wide RAD markers, we describe the structure of the genetic diversity and the demographic dynamics of the H. cristata invasive populations and compare their genetic diversity with that of native African populations of …