DERIVAZIONE DEI MODELLI PREVISIONALI PER LE ROTATORIE URBANE. UN CASO STUDIO,

Come è noto, i modelli previsionali d’incidentalità (in campo internazionale conosciuti come Safety Performance Functions) vengono ormai da tempo impiegati nelle valutazioni di sicurezza; ad essi è affidato il compito di condensare le conoscenze pregresse sulla sicurezza di entità (tronchi stradali, intersezioni, etc.) simili a quelli in considerazione. Quando integrati in una procedura di stima empirico-bayesiana, i modelli previsionali d’incidentalità concorrono alla correzione della distorsione dovuta alla regressione verso la media ed all’accrescimento della precisione della stima. Nella presente memoria viene presentato un esempio di determinazione di tali modelli per il caso di rotato…

DERIVAZIONE DEI MODELLI PREVISIONALI PER LE ROTATORIE URBANE.

Flower Roundabouts And Double-Lane Roundabouts: A Comparative Performance Analysis

AbstractIn the paper, a choice criterion between flower roundabouts and double-lane roundabouts is proposed, focusing on operational benefits that can derive from one scheme over the other, and outlining a general framework for benefit-cost analysis. In order to assess operational benefits of innovative roundabouts over modern roundabouts, a comparative analysis was made. Capacity was estimated using gap-acceptance models. In detail, assuming the dichotomic shifted negative exponential distribution to model headways in circulating streams, the Hagring formula was adjusted to obtain entry capacity estimations at roundabout approaches where entering vehicles face one or two conflicting flows.…

Accounting for dispersion and correlation in estimating Safety Performance Functions. An overview starting from a case study

In statistical analysis of crash count data, as well as in estimating Safety Performance Functions (SPFs), the failure of Poisson equidispersion hypothesis and the temporal correlation in annual crash counts must be considered to improve the reliability of estimation of the parameters. After a short discussion on the statistical tools accounting for dispersion and correlation, the paper presents the methodological path followed in estimating a SPF for urban four-leg, signalized intersections. Since the case study exhibited signs of underdispersion, a Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was fitted to the data; then a quasi-Poisson model in the framework of Generalized Estim…

Recent Evolutions of Roundabouts: Methodological Issues and Practical Concerns.

The aim of the research is to provide a choice criterion between innovative roundabouts (turbo-roundabouts and flower-roundabouts) and double-lane roundabouts by evaluating convenience in terms of performances, when traffic demand is known. For this purpose, comparisons of operational performances at innovative roundabouts with regard to those at traditional roundabouts were developed. We started from consistent assumptions regarding the arrival process of major streams and used capacity models founded on gap-acceptance theory. Having in mind a bunched exponential headways distribution, we proposed adaptations of the Hagring model for estimating entry capacity at intersections under examina…

A generalized model for analyzing operational conditions at intersections in urban areas

Energy and CO2 life cycle inventory issues for aluminum based components: The case study of a high speed train window panel

Abstract As materials production and transport are two relevant sectors in terms of global environmental impact, over the last years environmental impact analyses (mainly life cycle based analyses) of material replacing strategies in means of transportation were developed. Life cycle approach allows to consider the light-weighing benefit without neglecting the environmental impact of material production. In the present research energy and CO2 emissions life cycle analysis of a real case study is presented. Industrial data, experimental measurements and literature analysis were used to develop the life cycle analysis of an aluminum window panel to be assembled on an Italian high speed train.…

Researching a Capacity Model for Multilane Roundabouts with Negotiation of the Right-of-Way between Antagonist Traffic Flows

This article summarizes a research program designed to assess operating conditions through capacity estimation at not-conventional roundabouts characterized by a central island with a large diameter and by two (or more) entering and circulating lanes. Although giving priority to vehicles on circulatory roadway is the nominal operating rule, on-field observations highlighted that in some infrastructural schemes of the type considered in this research drivers negotiate the right-of-way according to a consensus pattern that alternates between antagonist traffic flows, similarly to that observed at all-way-stop-controlled intersections. Considering the peculiarity of the way of working at round…

Approccio teorico-sperimentale per l'analisi delle condizioni operative di rotatorie urbane non convenzionali

I metodi tradizionali di analisi delle rotatorie cadono in difetto in presenza di schemi organizzativi dell’intersezione, nei quali l’organizzazione geometrica, unitamente alla molteplicità delle situazioni di traffico ed all’inserimento in contesti vincolati, induce comportamenti di guida anche molto distanti da quelli osservabili in rotatorie convenzionali. Quanto evidenziato interessa, in particolare, l’ambito urbano, dove le intersezioni a circolazione rotatoria risultano particolarmente diffuse e si caratterizzano per requisiti geometrico-funzionali spesso distanti da quelli propri delle rotatorie convenzionali. Uno dei maggiori ostacoli che si incontrano nell’analisi delle condizioni …

Estimating the safety performance function for urban unsignalized four-legged one-way intersections in Palermo, Italy

Abstract Starting from consideration that urban intersections are sites with promise for safety and operational improvements, the paper describes the steps taken to develop a crash predictive model for estimating the safety performance of urban unsignalized intersections located in Palermo, Italy. The focus is on unsignalized four-legged one-way intersections widespread in Italian downtowns. The sample considered in the study consist of 92 intersections in Palermo, Italy. For the study were collected crashes occurred in the sites during the years 2006-2012, geometric design and functional characteristics and traffic flow. Results showed that data were overdispersed and NB1 distributed. In o…

La pianificazione stradale in Sicilia prima dell’Unità di italia

Emission factors related to vehicle modal activity

Polluting emissions depend on vehicle characteristics and on traffi c conditions expected after the construction of a road project. Nevertheless, in the assessment of new projects, the task of road designer becomes uncertain when the reduction in polluting emissions has to be evaluated. Moreover, vehicle emissions are highly linked to modal vehicle activity, but current emission rate models do not properly predict on-road vehicle emissions produced by modal traffi c events, as those occurring at intersections. Modal emission models require the analysis of modal activity at a microscale level in order to evaluate emission factors by a single mode (idle, acceleration, deceleration, and cruise…

Improving Reliability of Road Safety Estimates Based on High Correlated Accident Counts

Calibrating a safety performance function (SPF) with many years of accident data creates a temporal correlation that traditional model calibration procedures cannot deal with. It is well known that generalized estimating equations (GEE) models are able to incorporate trends into accident data and thus overcome difficulties in accounting for correlation; the usual application of GEEs to safety analysis uses robust (or sandwich) estimates of regression coefficients under the independence hypothesis for the working correlation matrix. This practice is justified by the robustness of the GEE procedure against misspecification of the response correlation structure. Nevertheless, with this method…

How to derive the analytical capacity model for not-conventional urban roundabouts

The inapplicability of current methods for analyzing operations of urban not-conventional roundabouts (i.e. not referable to standard schemes) hampers seriously the assessment of their operational performances. Moreover, local constraints and the road network structure have produced lots of geometric layouts that make hard to propose an only framework to explain performances of not-conventional roundabouts. Also for these intersections it is hoped to have scientifically based methods to analyze operations with a proper reliability. Starting from these considerations, the paper shows the conceptual path followed to analyze operations at not-conventional roundabouts along an arterial of Paler…

Modeling traffic safety at urban four leg-signalized intersections

According to the state-of-the-art of the methodologies, the development of safety performance functions (SPFs) for road sections and intersections requires the employment of statistical models to predict expected crash frequencies on the basis of traffic volumes and site characteristics to be surveyed and used as input to models. Nevertheless, literature reports several studies on issues deriving from data features or methodological approaches that may invalidate the efficiency of the models and the accuracy of the estimates. Drawing inspiration from the above mentioned considerations, the objective of this study is to develop safety performance functions for a sample of urban four leg-sign…