Changes in lung-cancer mortality trends in Spain

Several changes in smoking patterns over the past decades in Spain can be expected to result in a shift in lung-cancer mortality rates. We examined time trends in lung-cancer mortality from 1973-1997 using a log-linear Poisson age-period-cohort model. The standardized lung-cancer mortality rate for men almost doubled, from 31.4 per 100,000 in 1973 to 58.6 in 1997, with an average annual increase of 2.7%. Mortality increased for male generations born until 1952 as a consequence of the increasing cigarette smoking in successive birth cohorts. However, the slight downward trend observed for the 2 youngest generations suggests a more favorable outcome of the lung-cancer epidemic among Spanish m…