0000000000496127
AUTHOR
Paul-arthur Monerie
Expected future changes in the African monsoon between 2030 and 2070 using some CMIP3 and CMIP5 models under a medium-low RCP scenario
[1] The accuracy of African Monsoon (AM) simulations together with expected future changes are presented using eight available CMIP5/AR5 AOGCMs under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and eight CMIP3/AR4 AOGCMs under the A1b scenario, with a multimodel approach and the “one model one vote” concept. The results refer to the ‘present’ period (1960–1999) and to a ‘future horizon’ (2031–2070), and are discussed in terms of monsoon dynamics and climate change. Overall the new simulations seem more realistic. They exhibit more accurate rainfall patterns, although some biases reported in CMIP3 models remain. The future changes show an inverse tendency regarding rainfall amounts with less (more) rainfal…
Changes in the African monsoon region at medium-term time horizon using 12 AR4 coupled models under the A1b emissions scenario.
This study documents simulated precipitation and circulation changes through the 20C3M and A1b scenarios. It portrays a robust pattern, associating rainfall deficits in subtropical regions with rainfall excesses over West Africa, except in Northern Senegal and Mauritania, with a significant enhancement of both the April–June rainy season in 10/12 models and of the July–September rainy season in 8/12 models. Eastward to 5°W a northward shift in the latitude of the moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa is evident in 10/11 models (+0.58° in mean) and a southward shift in 6/11 models in the western region (−0.24°) is observed. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
Recent changes in air temperature, heat waves occurrences, and atmospheric circulation in Northern Africa
This study documents the time evolution of air temperature and heat waves occurrences over Northern Africa for the period 1979-2011. A significant warming (1°-3°C), appearing by the mid-1960s over Sahara and Sahel, is associated with higher/lesser frequency of warm/cold temperatures, as with longer duration and higher occurrences of heat waves. Heat waves episodes of at least 4 day duration have been examined after removing the long-term evolution. These episodes are associated with specific anomalies: (i) in spring, positive low-level temperature anomalies over the Sahel and Sahara; low and midlevel cyclonic rotation over Morocco associated with a Rossby wave pattern, lessening the Harmatt…
Les changements futurs de la mousson africaine.
7 pages; International audience; Nous analysons l’effet du changement climatique sur la mousson d’Afrique de l’ouest par l’utilisation de huitmodèles CMIP5 sous scénario RCP4.5, la réalisation d’un multi-modèle et l’approche « one model, one vote ». Les résultatsmontrent l’apparition d’un contraste pluviométrique zonal entre le centre et l’ouest du Sahel. Une mousson plus intensepermettrait une hausse de la convergence d’humidité et des précipitations au centre du Sahel. Un renforcement du jet d’estafricain et de la subsidence sur l’ouest du Sahel y permettrait en revanche une baisse de la pluviométrie.
Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change.
12 pages; International audience; The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920–2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variabilit…
Mid-century effects of Climate Change on African monsoon dynamics using the A1B emission scenario
Future climate changes in African regions are model-dependent and there is no consensus regarding Sahelian rainfall by the end of this century. Using 12 atmosphere-ocean global climate models of the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) we propose a multi-model (MM) analysis contrasting the 1960–1999 period (20c3m integration) and the 2031–2070 period (A1B emission scenario). The analyses are based on MM response but also on the ‘one model-one vote’ concept to give the same weight to each model. The results show robust signals in the rainfall response, i.e., increasing (decreasing) amounts in central (western) Sahel associated with specific changes in atmospheric dynamics. The…
On the projected increase of Sahel rainfall during the late rainy season
Thirteen CMIP5 models are used to analyse changes in climate over the West African monsoon region between the near future (2031–2070 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario), and a control period (1960–1999 under the historical emission scenario), with a focus on the late rainy season. The monsoon circulation is projected to strengthen and to shift northward leading to more rainfall during the Sahelian season. The results show an increase of the Rainfall amounts in September–October and a delay in the monsoon withdrawal. The increased moisture that fuels the rainfall anomalies is associated with an increase in moisture flux convergence and with local moisture recycling. The moisture transport do…
The climate change effect on the african monsoon region : evolution of the precipitation and atmospheric fields in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations under the AIB and rcp45 scenario (1960-1999, 2031-2070)
The fourth IPCC report in 2007 established the synthesis of previously published work onthe effects of climate change on global and regional scales. It shows in particular that no consensuscan be found with regard to the future of rainfall — and atmospheric dynamics- associatedwith region — African monsoon. This dissertation revisits this issue in the light of new dataand using an approach avoiding over-representation of the number of simulations available forone type of model and taking into account the diversity of models and their evolution in time :twenty general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the exercises CMIP3 (twelve GCMs)and CMIP5 (eight GCMs) under the A1B emissions sc…