0000000000496714
AUTHOR
Michael Maier-gerber
Statistical-Dynamical Forecasting of Sub-Seasonal North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence
AbstractWhile previous research on sub-seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence has mostly focused on either the validation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, or the development of statistical models trained on past data, the present study combines both approaches to a statistical–dynamical model for probabilistic forecasts in the North Atlantic basin. Although state-of-the-art NWP models have been shown to lack predictive skill with respect to sub-seasonal weekly TC occurrence, they may predict the environmental conditions sufficiently well to generate predictors for a statistical model. Therefore, an extensive predictor set was generated, including predictor groups representin…
Birth of the Biscane
This paper describes the unprecedented storm Stephanie, which exhibited tropical characteristics over the Bay of Biscay on 15 September 2016. Remote sensing observations reveal a cloud-free area surrounded by a circular precipitation pattern and an axisymmetric wind field, while buoy observations show an abrupt drop in wind speed during the passage of the storm centre. Model analysis further corroborates an ongoing tropical transition from a frontal cold-core to a symmetric warm-core system. By analogy with ‘Medicanes’ (Mediterranean hurricanes), we name this storm a ‘Biscane’ (Biscay hurricane). Weather systems of this kind may become more frequent in a warmer climate.
Assessing the predictability of Medicanes in ECMWF ensemble forecasts using an object-based approach
The predictability of eight southern European tropical-like cyclones, seven of which Medicanes, is studied evaluating ECMWF operational ensemble forecasts against operational analysis data. Forecast cyclone trajectories are compared to the cyclone trajectory in the analysis by means of a dynamic time warping technique, which allows to find a match in terms of their overall spatio-temporal similarity. Each storm is treated as an object and its forecasts are analysed using metrics that describe intensity, symmetry, compactness, and upper-level thermal structure. This object-based approach allows to focus on specific storm features, while tolerating their shifts in time and space to some exten…
Tropical Transition of Hurricane Chris (2012) over the North Atlantic Ocean: A Multi-Scale Investigation of Predictability
Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical transition' (TT) pathway plays a prominent role in cyclogenesis, in particular over the North Atlantic Ocean. Here we use operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble predictions to investigate the TT of North Atlantic Hurricane Chris (2012), whose formation was preceded by the merger of two potential vorticity (PV) maxima, eventually resulting in the storm-inducing PV streamer. The principal goal is to elucidate the dynamic and …