0000000000501659
AUTHOR
Niina Kotamäki
Statistical methods for adaptive river basin management and monitoring
Decision-making at different phases of adaptive river basin management planning rely largely on the information that is gained through environmental monitoring. The aim of this thesis was to develop and test statistical assessment tools presumed to be particularly useful for evaluating existing monitoring designs, converting monitoring data into management information and quantifying uncertainties. River basin scale monitoring was performed using a wireless sensor network and a data quality control system and maintenance effort was assessed. National-scale, traditional monitoring data and linear mixed effect modelling were used to estimate the uncertainty in two status class metrics (total …
Macrosystem community change in lake phytoplankton and its implications for diversity and function
Aim We use lake phytoplankton community data to quantify the spatio-temporal and scale-dependent impacts of eutrophication, land-use and climate change on species niches and community assembly processes while accounting for species traits and phylogenetic constraints. Location Finland. Time period 1977–2017. Major taxa Phytoplankton. Methods We use hierarchical modelling of species communities (HMSC) to model metacommunity trajectories at 853 lakes over four decades of environmental change, including a hierarchical spatial structure to account for scale-dependent processes. Using a “region of common profile” approach, we evaluate compositional changes of species communities and trait profil…
Lake Load Response (LLR) – mallityökalu vesialueiden hoidon suunnittelun apuvälineenä
For eutrophic lakes, achieving good water quality usually requires a reduction in external loading. The Lake Load Response (LLR) tool, based on the LakeState (LS) model, can be used to predict the necessary loading reduction, which can be utilized when making decisions on the management of the lake. The best predictions are made when the input values of the incoming loading, water outflow and in-lake total phosphorus, total nitrogen and chlorophyll a concentrations are as accurate as possible. Accurate loading data is often hard to collect because of the lack of resources for observations. However, LLR-runs made for the lake Lehesjärvi-Vähäjärvi in Jyväskylä showed that examining the needed…
A practical approach to improve the statistical performance of surface water monitoring networks
The representativeness of aquatic ecosystem monitoring and the precision of the assessment results are of high importance when implementing the EU’s Water Framework Directive that aims to secure a good status of waterbodies in Europe. However, adapting monitoring designs to answer the objectives and allocating the sampling resources effectively are seldom practiced. Here, we present a practical solution how the sampling effort could be re-allocated without decreasing the precision and confidence of status class assignment. For demonstrating this, we used a large data set of 272 intensively monitored Finnish lake, coastal, and river waterbodies utilizing an existing framework for quantifying…
The value of perfect and imperfect information in lake monitoring and management.
Highlights • Knowledge on the value of monitoring can assist decision-making in lake management. • We calculate value of perfect information theoretically. • We estimate value of imperfect information with Monte Carlo type of approach. • Generally, monitoring is profitable to invest in if VOI exceeds the cost. • Additional monitoring is profitable even if the lake is in good condition a priori. Uncertainty in the information obtained through monitoring complicates decision making about aquatic ecosystems management actions. We suggest the value of information (VOI) to assess the profitability of paying for additional monitoring information, when taking into account the costs and benefits of…
Lakes in the era of global change: moving beyond single‐lake thinking in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services
The Anthropocene presents formidable threats to freshwater ecosystems. Lakes are especially vulnerable and important at the same time. They cover only a small area worldwide but harbour high levels of biodiversity and contribute disproportionately to ecosystem services. Lakes differ with respect to their general type (e.g. land-locked, drainage, floodplain and large lakes) and position in the landscape (e.g. highland versus lowland lakes), which contribute to the dynamics of these systems. Lakes should be generally viewed as ‘meta-systems’, whereby biodiversity is strongly affected by species dispersal, and ecosystem dynamics are contributed by the flow of matter and substances among locati…