New physics in $B$ meson mixing: future sensitivity and limitations

The mixing of neutral mesons is sensitive to some of the highest scales probed in laboratory experiments. In light of the planned LHCb Upgrade II, a possible upgrade of Belle II, and the broad interest in flavor physics in the tera-Z phase of the proposed FCC-ee program, we study constraints on new physics contributions to Bd and Bs mixings which can be obtained in these benchmark scenarios. We explore the limitations of this program, and identify the measurement of |Vcb| as one of the key ingredients in which progress beyond current expectations is necessary to maximize future sensitivity. We speculate on possible solutions to this bottleneck. Given the current tension with the standard mo…