0000000000557712
AUTHOR
Shakoor Hajat
showing 3 related works from this author
Modelling the non-linear multiple-lag effects of ambient temperature on mortality in Santiago and Palermo: a constrained segmented distributed lag ap…
2008
Objectives: Exposure to ambient temperature can affect mortality levels for days or weeks following exposure, making modelling such effects in regression analysis of daily time-series data complex. Methods: We propose a new approach involving a multi-lag segmented approximation to account for the non-linear effect of temperature and the use of two different penalised spline bases to model the distributed lag of both heat and cold exposure. Compared with standard splines, the novel penalised framework is more flexible at short lags where change in coefficients is greatest, and selection of the maximum lag appears substantially less important in determining the overall pattern of the effect. …
Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.
2017
Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a tw…
Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.
2018
The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to hold warming well below 2 degrees C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. The 1.5 degrees C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warmin…