0000000000590842
AUTHOR
Daniel Adyro Martínez-bello
showing 7 related works from this author
Real-time parameter estimation of Zika outbreaks using model averaging
2017
SUMMARYEarly prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for Zika disease outbreaks can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. The Richards model is often been used to estimate epidemiological parameters for arboviral diseases based on the reported cumulative cases in single- and multi-wave outbreaks. However, other non-linear models can also fit the data as well. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this…
Joint Estimation of Relative Risk for Dengue and Zika Infections, Colombia, 2015–2016
2019
We jointly estimated relative risk for dengue and Zika virus disease (Zika) in Colombia, establishing the spatial association between them at the department and city levels for October 2015–December 2016. Cases of dengue and Zika were allocated to the 87 municipalities of 1 department and the 293 census sections of 1 city in Colombia. We fitted 8 hierarchical Bayesian Poisson joint models of relative risk for dengue and Zika, including area- and disease-specific random effects accounting for several spatial patterns of disease risk (clustered or uncorrelated heterogeneity) within and between both diseases. Most of the dengue and Zika high-risk municipalities varied in their risk distributio…
Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts
2017
The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order …
Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Zika and Dengue Infections within Colombia
2018
The aim of this study is to estimate the parallel relative risk of Zika virus disease (ZVD) and dengue using spatio-temporal interaction effects models for one department and one city of Colombia during the 2015&ndash
Two-level resolution of relative risk of dengue disease in a hyperendemic city of Colombia.
2018
Risk maps of dengue disease offer to the public health officers a tool to model disease risk in space and time. We analyzed the geographical distribution of relative incidence risk of dengue disease in a high incidence city from Colombia, and its evolution in time during the period January 2009—December 2015, identifying regional effects at different levels of spatial aggregations. Cases of dengue disease were geocoded and spatially allocated to census sectors, and temporally aggregated by epidemiological periods. The census sectors are nested in administrative divisions defined as communes, configuring two levels of spatial aggregation for the dengue cases. Spatio-temporal models including…
Vitamin C supplementation does not improve hypoxia-induced erythropoiesis.
2012
Martinez-Bello,Vladimir E., Fabian Sanchis-Gomar, Daniel Martinez-Bello, Gloria Olaso-Gonzalez, Mari Carmen Gomez-Cabrera, and Jose Viña. Vitamin C Supplementation Does Not Improve Hypoxia-Induced Erythropoiesis. High Alt Med Biol 13:269–274, 2012.—Hypoxia induces reactive oxygen species production. Supplements with antioxidant mixtures can compensate for the decline in red cell membrane stability following intermittent hypobaric hypoxia by decreasing protein and lipid oxidation. We aimed to determine whether supplementation with vitamin C is implicated in the regulation of erythropoiesis and in the oxygen-carrying capacity of the blood, and also whether antioxidant supplementation prevents…
Relative risk estimation of dengue disease at small spatial scale
2017
Abstract Background Dengue is a high incidence arboviral disease in tropical countries around the world. Colombia is an endemic country due to the favourable environmental conditions for vector survival and spread. Dengue surveillance in Colombia is based in passive notification of cases, supporting monitoring, prediction, risk factor identification and intervention measures. Even though the surveillance network works adequately, disease mapping techniques currently developed and employed for many health problems are not widely applied. We select the Colombian city of Bucaramanga to apply Bayesian areal disease mapping models, testing the challenges and difficulties of the approach. Methods…