Modeling the natural gas supply chain for sustainable growth policy

Abstract Natural gas has been used globally as a transitional fuel for supporting a green-energy-supply strategy, which has been questioned for the intermittence and lack of reliability of renewables. This paper proposes a System Dynamics model for assessing alternative security of supply policy along the natural gas value chain. The model incorporates demand, transport, production and reserves of natural gas variables according to a systemic perspective. It also includes a module for evaluating the effect of natural gas price on the demand and supply levels, respectively. Alternative supply policies are evaluated under different scenarios. The chosen case-study focuses on the Colombian nat…