Caustic ingestion: development and validation of a prognostic score

Abstract Background Caustic ingestion is a potentially severe condition and early identification of poor outcome is essential to improve management; however, prediction based on endoscopy alone can overestimate severity. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic score. Methods A prospective cohort study was designed to include all consecutive patients aged > 15 years who presented with caustic ingestion between 1995 and 2017. Adverse outcome was defined by intensive care unit admission, urgent surgery, or death. The predictive value of clinical, analytical, and endoscopic variables was assessed in the first cohort (derivation cohort) and a prognostic score based on the result…