Persistence of remnant boreal plants in the Chiricahua Mountains, southern Arizona

Abstract Boreal plants growing along the southern edge of their range on isolated mountains in a hot desert matrix live near the extreme of their physiological tolerance. Such plants are considered sensitive to small changes in climate. We coupled field observations (1974, 1993, 2019) about the abundance and vigor of small populations of ten remnant boreal plant species persisting in the uppermost elevations of spruce-fir forests of the Chiricahua Mountains, together with modeling of the species sensitivities to three stress factors associated with climatic change: warming, drought, and forest fire, in order to explore the persistence of frontier boreal plant species during climate change. …