0000000000761800
AUTHOR
Viktorija Bobinaite
Modelling Electricity Price Expectations in a Day-Ahead Market: A Case of Latvia
Abstract The paper aims at modelling the electricity generator’s expectations about price development in the Latvian day-ahead electricity market. Correlation and sensitivity analysis methods are used to identify the key determinants of electricity price expectations. A neural network approach is employed to model electricity price expectations. The research results demonstrate that electricity price expectations depend on the historical electricity prices. The price a day ago is the key determinant of price expectations and the importance of the lagged prices reduces as the time backwards lengthens. Nine models of electricity price expectations are prepared for different natural seasons an…
Modelling of Water Supply Costs
Water supply tariffs setting is a labour intensive regulatory procedure; currently number of informative and procedural shortages and problems exist. The aim of the current research is improvement of methodology for determination of the substantiated costs for provision of water services. A working hypothesis was advanced to modernize the methodology: the specific costs (/m3) required for the provision of water services in a specific region is a variable multi-parameter function of key performance indicators. There is preferred a benchmark modelling procedure, which is based on the factual cases (declared indicators of water utilities) and synthesis of the general regularity. The model is d…