Domestic vs. International correlations of interest rate maturities
The association between long and short interest rates is traditionally envisaged from a purely domestic perspective, where it is believed an empirical regularity. Hence, the weakening of this relationship in the first half of the 2000s has represented a conundrum, calling for a reassessment of the term structure and the conduct of monetary policy. Some commentators have called for investigations into the international dimension of this puzzle. Hence, in this paper we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to investigate the co-movement of interest rate maturities both at the domestic and international levels for a sample of industrial countries. Specifically, we use the Ng (2006)…
The Global Side of the Investment-Saving Puzzle
In this paper, we reexamine the long-standing and puzzling correlation between national saving and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long-run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of saving and investment. We also find that the global components in saving and investments commove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.
Convergence in TFP among Italian Regions: Panel Unit Roots with Heterogeneity and Cross Sectional Dependence
This paper performs a number of tests to estimate convergence in total factor productivity (TFP) among Italian regions during the period 1970-2001. We generate the regional TFP series using growth accounting methodologies, and then apply a range of panel unit root tests to analyse the process of convergence. We extend the existing literature by incorporating three main improvements. Firstly, we control for the heterogeneity arising from the different economic structure of each region. Secondly, we account for the cross-sectional dependence due to common shocks or spillovers among different regions at the same time. Finally, we look for clubs of convergence using tests of poolability both on…
Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals
The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, the authors document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on co-movement of commodity prices.