Can adaptation lead to extinction?
Ever since J.B.S. Haldane proposed the idea, evolutionary biologists are aware that individual level adaptations do not necessarily lead to optimal population performance. A few deeply mathematical models, drawing from a diverse range of systems, even predict that individual selection can lead to the extinction of the whole population, a phenomenon which has become known as evolutionary suicide. Due to the complexity of both following adaptation and determining the exact cause of an extinction, evolutionary suicide has remained untested empirically. However, three recent empirical studies suggest that it may occur, and that suicide should be taken seriously as a potentially important evolut…
Species-level selection reduces selfishness through competitive exclusion.
Adaptation does not necessarily lead to traits which are optimal for the population. This is because selection is often the strongest at the individual or gene level. The evolution of selfishness can lead to a ‘tragedy of the commons’, where traits such as aggression or social cheating reduce population size and may lead to extinction. This suggests that species-level selection will result whenever species differ in the incentive to be selfish. We explore this idea in a simple model that combines individual-level selection with ecology in two interacting species. Our model is not influenced by kin or trait-group selection. We find that individual selection in combination with competitive ex…