Trade balances and exchange rates in the long run for European Union countries

2000

This paper has found evidence that real effective exchange rates have a positive impact on the trade balance in the long run for major European Union countries. This result sheds more light on the long-run statistical relationship between those two variables, at least in the context of the Community. The existence of that link is sustained by the effects that income variables have on the trade balance. The outcomes of this analysis in support of a long-run equilibrium relationship are consistent with the imperfect substitutes model, confirming the validity of this model for economic policy implementation purposes. Low, long-run elasticities of the trade balance with respect to the real effe…