System Dynamics in the Predictive Analytics of Container Freight Rates

This study proposes a two-tier cross-validation and backtesting procedure, including expanding and rolling-window test metrics in predictive analytics of container freight rates by utilizing the system dynamics approach. The study utilized system dynamics to represent the nonlinear complex structure of container freight rates for predictive analytics and performed univariate and multivariate time-series analysis as benchmarks of the conventional approach. In particular, the China containerized freight index (CCFI) has been investigated through various parametric methodologies (both conventional time-series and system dynamics approaches). This study follows a strict validation process cons…