0000000000855083
AUTHOR
Niclas Andrén
Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-At-Risk for Value-Creating Risk Management Under Macroeconomic Uncertainty
A strategically minded CFO will realize that strategic corporate risk management is about finding the right balance between risk prevention and proactive value generation. Efficient risk and performance management requires adequate assessment of risk and risk exposures on the one hand and performance on the other. Properly designed, a risk measure should provide information on to what extend the firm's performance is at risk, what is causing that risk, the relative importance of non-value-adding and value-adding risk, and the possibilities to use risk management to reduce total risk. In this chapter, we present an approach – exposure-based cash-flow-at-risk – to calculating a firm's downsid…
Exchange Rate and Interest-Rate Driven Competitive Advantages in the EMU
Real exchange and interest rates may still fluctuate inside the EMU and give rise to changes in competitiveness. We find, in contrast to what is generally expected, no convergence in these variables after the introduction of the euro. On the contrary, a divergence is found that is extraordinary when compared to the preceding 40 years. The magnitude of the divergence should urge on a wave of restructuring in the EMU, conditioned upon adequate policy responses. The worst-case scenario involves a flight to structural support and protectionism, challenging the whole idea of the EMU.
Producer Prices in the Transition to a Common Currency
We analyze producer price developments in the transition from a national exchange rate regime to a monetary union. The focus is on the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Stylized facts witness about an exploding gaps in producer-price inflation during the years immediately following the completion of the EMU. Price convergence is found to be an important driver throughout the entire euro period (1999-2005), but with no significant differences in speed compared to the pre euro period. Productivity growth had its primary effect in the first years and effective exchange-rate changes in the later years of the euro period.