Standard Asymptotic Response and Expected Runoff from Curve Number Theory

2015

The Standard Asymptotic response is a common finding with rainfall-runoff analysis with the Curve Number method. Widely-observed in data analyses, it is the secondary relationship between the data-defined CN and the causative rainfall P, for which the empirical fitting equation CN(P) = CN∞+ (100-CN∞)exp(-kP) has been found to fit well. This is an unexpected variation in the handbook methodology. It is investigated here on a “theoretical” basis by using the handbook tabled values of CN for the three AMC classes, I, II, and III; the storm-to-storm S (=1000/CN-10); and the observed 12-50-88 percent conditional probabilities for the ARC classes. With this, and treating S as a variable across th…