Global connectivity between commodity prices and national stock markets: A time‐varying MIDAS analysis

Incentives, criminal defence lawyers and plea bargaining

Plea bargaining has become a central feature of criminal procedure in Anglo-Saxon jurisdictions. This paper explores an area seldom discussed in the economic literature on plea bargaining: the influence of the defence lawyer's fee contract on the terms of the bargain. In particular, it uses data from one jurisdiction of the impact on case trajectories of changes in publicly funded defence lawyers’ contracts to test the proposition that the nature of the lawyer's contract influences how cases are managed. An event study methodology on a pooled time-series cross-section data set of case trajectories before and after the change in the nature of the contract is used to examine whether the new p…

European Cities and Global Competitiveness, edited by Peter K.Kresl and DanieleIetri. 2012. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Massachusetts: Edward Elgar. 317 + viii. ISBN: 978-0-85793-828-2, $126.00.

The stabilizing effect of volatility in financial markets

In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered synonym of greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To investigate this surprising feature, here we propose using the mean first hitting time, i.e. the average time a stock return takes to undergo for the first time a large negative or positive variation, as an indicator of price stability, and relate this to a standard measure of volatility. In an empirical analysis of daily returns for $1071$ stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange, we find that this measure of stability displays nonmonotonic behavior, …

Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets

Abstract This paper uses seemingly unrelated probit techniques to separate the transmission of a crisis due to broadly defined macroeconomic interdependence from contagion due to herding, avoiding some of the caveats of the more traditional cross-correlation approach. We find that pure contagion occurred in a limited number of country pairs generally belonging to the same region. A reduction in speculative pressure can also be identified between countries in different regional blocks. This seems to suggest that after an initial crisis episode, investors tend to discriminate on the basis of location and common macroeconomic weakness or perceived similarity.

The Global Side of the Investments-Savings Puzzle

In this paper we re-examine the long standing and puzzling correlation between national savings and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of savings and investment. We also find that the global components in savings and investments commove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.

Primary Commodity Prices: Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals

The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, we document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on the co-movement of commodity prices.

The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered

Historical data for over hundred years and 14 countries is used to estimate the long-run effect of productivity on the real exchange rate. We find large variations in the productivity effect across four distinct monetary regimes in the sample period. Although the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model is not consistent with these results, we suggest an explanation of the results in terms of contemporary variants of the model that incorporate the terms of trade mechanism. Specifically we argue that changes in trade costs over time may affect the impact of productivity on the real exchange rate over time. We undertake simulations of the modern versions of the Balassa-Samuelson model to show that…

Total Factor Productivity Convergence Amongst Italian Regions: Some Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests

Byrne J. P., Fazio G. and Piacentino D. Total factor productivity convergence among Italian regions: some evidence from panel unit root tests. Regional Studies. This paper employs panel unit root tests to investigate convergence in total factor productivity (TFP) among Italian regions. These tests provide an inference valid in the presence of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, and when the cross-sectional dimension is smaller than the time dimension, allowing the investigation of convergence among different subsets of regions. The results add a further dimension to the conventional view on growth dynamics in the Italian peninsula depicting a lack of regional TFP convergence not o…

Individual vs Multi-level Effects in Italian Manufacturing Firms

A micro-founded approach to regional innovation in Italy

Recent regional studies have taken a micro-founded perspective to uncover the influence of the external environment on the firm-level innovative performance. Despite the marked spatial disparities, there is a general lack of recent evidence on Italian regional innovation from a micro perspective. This paper fills this gap in the evidence base by estimating regional Knowledge Production Functions using Italian micro-data collected in the Community Innovation Survey. In particular, here we focus on the regional differences in the relationship between innovative inputs and outputs and on the ability of firms to absorb external knowledge. This analysis allows us to outline different regional in…

Interest rate co-movements, global factors and the long end of the term spread

INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

Currency Crises and Contagion

Pareto or log-normal? Best fit and truncation in the distribution of all cities

In the literature, the distribution of city size is a controversial issue with two common contenders: the Pareto and the log-normal. While the first is most accredited when the distribution is truncated above a certain threshold, the latter is usually considered a better representation for the untruncated distribution of all cities. In this paper, we reassess the empirical evidence on the best-fitting distribution in relation to the truncation point issue. Specifically, we provide a comparison among four recently proposed approaches and alternative definitions of U.S. cities. Our results highlight the importance to look at issue of the best-fitting distribution together with the truncation …

PARETO OR LOG-NORMAL? BEST FIT AND TRUNCATION IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF ALL CITIES*

In the literature, the distribution of city size is a controversial issue with two common contenders: the Pareto and the log-normal. While the first is most accredited when the distribution is truncated above a certain threshold, the latter is usually considered a better representation for the untruncated distribution of all cities. In this paper, we reassess the empirical evidence on the best-fitting distribution in relation to the truncation point issue. Specifically, we provide a comparison among four recently proposed approaches and alternative definitions of U.S. cities. Our results highlight the importance to look at issue of the best-fitting distribution together with the truncation …

Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour

In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in eleven industrial economies and then focus on relating these rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.

Interest rate co-movements, global factors and the long end of the term spread

The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007); or a global savings glut (e.g Bernanke, 2005) may be responsible. In this paper, we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to document the disconnect and link it explicitly to the existence of a global latent factor that dominates the long end of the term spread for the recent period; the saving glut story emerges as the most likely contender for the global factor.

Fatal attraction: Using distance to measure contagion in good times as well as bad

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a departure from previous practice measures contagion using the relationship of these correlations with distance. Also in contrast to previous work, our test is good at identifying periods of “positive contagion,” in which capital flows to emerging markets in a herd-like manner largely unrelated to fundamentals. Identifying such periods of “fatal attraction” is important as they provide the essential ingredients for subsequent crises and rapid outflows of capital.

Euro-mediterranean Economic Integration: an Empirical Estimation of Trade Flows

Pareto or log-normal? A recursive-truncation approach to the distribution of (all) cities

Traditionally, it is assumed that the population size of cities in a country follows a Pareto distribution. This assumption is typically supported by finding evidence of Zipf's Law. Recent studies question this finding, highlighting that, while the Pareto distribution may fit reasonably well when the data is truncated at the upper tail, i.e. for the largest cities of a country, the log-normal distribution may apply when all cities are considered. Moreover, conclusions may be sensitive to the choice of a particular truncation threshold, a yet overlooked issue in the literature. In this paper, then, we reassess the city size distribution in relation to its sensitivity to the choice of truncat…

Bank-specific shocks and aggregate leverage: Empirical evidence from a panel of developed countries

International audience; This paper investigates the link between shocks in the banking sector and aggregate leverage measured by the credit-to-GDP gap. Using a balanced panel of 15 countries for the period 1989–2016, we exploit the approach due to Gabaix (2011) and consider banking granular shocks as an indicator of banking distress. Using methods that account for potential endogeneity, we find that banking shocks Granger-cause aggregate leverage. In particular, banking shocks tend to increase the level of leverage and cause departures of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend.

Incentives and Criminal Defence Lawyers: An event study

Euro-Mediterranean Economic Integration: An Empirical Investigation of Trade Flows

Greater trade and financial integration are implicitly identified by the Barcelona Conference as the mechanism to promote “peace and shared prosperity†and “sustainable and balanced economic and social development†in the Euro-Mediterranean Area. Indeed, the Conference has identified the establishment of the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area (FTA) as the essential element to build the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. The main objective of this paper is to verify the extent of economic integration between the countries that will form the FTA and assess the impact of European integration and enlargement on the process of Mediterranean economic integration. In particular, the use of a gr…

SMEs' heterogeneity at the extensive margin and within the intensive margin of trade

In this paper, we contribute to the literature on firm-heterogeneity and trade, by looking not only at the firm-level determinants of trade participation (i.e. extensive margin) but also at differences between firms with different levels of trade intensity (i.e. intensive margin). Further, we compare firms that are born ‘local’ and display different scales of international exposure to firms that are born ‘global’, i.e. access international markets soon after their birth. Using a large World Bank dataset of SMEs from 112 countries and qualitative dependent variable models, our analysis uncovers the heterogeneity of SMEs not only at the extensive margin but also within the intensive margin of…

Trade Costs, Trade Balances, and Current Accounts: an application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features. First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second, we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to recon…

Institutional Quality and International Competitiveness

Tratti socio-culturali-religiosi ed integrazione economica in un’area Euro-Mediterranea allargata

Divari economici e variabili di contesto. Un'analisi non parametrica per le regioni italiane

Contesto economico e sociale delle regioni italiane in un'analisi di performance.

THe Verdoorn law at regional level: Evidence from Europe

La distruzione creatrice e le politiche per l'innovazione

Fiducia verso persone e istituzioni: evidenze da una survey sul capitale civico degli studenti

Trust in people and institutions: evidence from a survey on the civic capital of students Objectives: According to economic theory, civic capital is the result of a process of social investment through vertical transmission channels, internal to the family, and horizontal socialization, among peers. The reference context, such as the neighbourhood, plays an important role influencing both of these channels. This paper presents some initial evidence obtained from a statistical survey conducted on students of secondary high schools of the city of Palermo with the aim of measuring the basic dimensions that contribute to the formation of the civic and human capital. In particular, the focus is …

Convergence analysis for hierarchical longitudinal data

Abstract Convergence analysis is typically envisaged either from a macro or a micro perspective. However, empirical tests tend to ignore that the two levels are often “nested” in a hierarchy. Building on hierarchical growth curve modelling, we propose an approach to convergence analysis that allows contemporaneous inference on macro and micro-convergence. Compared to the classic linear convergence analysis, the suggested methodology provides a more flexible alternative to model heterogeneity and validate the results for possible Galton's fallacy. We illustrate the approach in two empirical examples, one considering convergence across European regions and countries and the other across Itali…

Estimating Verdoorn law for Italian firms and regions

In empirical regional economics, returns to scale are typically estimated at the regional level in search for evidence on alternative theories of growth and agglomeration. However, returns to scale may also have a firm-level dimension. In this paper, we exploit micro level data and estimate the dynamic Verdoorn law in a multilevel-setting, where returns to scale are obtained simultaneously for the micro and the regional level. Using Italian firm-level data and the NUTS-3 level of aggregation, we estimate the classic and augmented versions of Verdoorn law for the manufacturing sector, and the rest of the economy for comparison. Our results show that increasing returns to scale co-exist at bo…

The Global Side of the Investment-Saving Puzzle

In this paper, we reexamine the long-standing and puzzling correlation between national saving and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long-run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of saving and investment. We also find that the global components in saving and investments commove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.

Agglomeration Externalities and the Productivity of Italian Firms

Despite the richness of contributions on the effects of agglomeration on economic activity, the empirical evidence still falls short, especially at the microeconomic level, where they should matter the most. This paper adds to this literature by performing an empirical exploration of the role of Marshallian, Jacobian, and Porterian externalities for the productivity of Italian firms. In particular, a large dataset of small and medium enterprises is first employed to estimate firm-level total factor productivity (TFP). Then dynamic panel and instrumental variables estimation methods are used to assess the effects of agglomeration externalities. The findings seem to suggest that these effects…

EMU and the Euro-Mediterranean Dialogue: Trade Interdependence between Mediterranean and Euro-area Countries

Economic interdependence and trade encourage international dialogue and represent a base for reducing international conflicts. Hence, international co-operation for the reduction of barriers to trade and capital flows can be important not only in inducing economic progress, but also in promoting peace (Polachek and Siegle 2006). In this respect, the introduction of the euro represents an epochal event for both the participants in the single European currency and for their external partners, and in particular those in neighbouring regions. However, whilst a large body of literature has focused on analysing the first, in particular, with respect to the impact of the euro on intra-regional tra…

Knowledge Flows and Innovative Performance. Evidence from Italian Firms

How "attractive" is good governance for FDI?

The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership and Financial Integration: a first assessment for selected countries

In this paper, we try to provide a first assessment on the extent of financial integration and convergence between selected European and Southern Mediterranean countries involved in the Barcelona process. In particular, we implement a simple test of capital mobility based on the verification of the international real interest parity hypothesis between domestic rates against the real rate of Germany, used as the European reference country, and against the real rate of the US. We repeat the test before and after the introduction of the Euro, and then measure the speed of real interest rate convergence.

A Test of Spatial Convergence from the Micro-Level

Convergence in TFP among Italian Regions: Panel Unit Roots with Heterogeneity and Cross Sectional Dependence

This paper performs a number of tests to estimate convergence in total factor productivity (TFP) among Italian regions during the period 1970-2001. We generate the regional TFP series using growth accounting methodologies, and then apply a range of panel unit root tests to analyse the process of convergence. We extend the existing literature by incorporating three main improvements. Firstly, we control for the heterogeneity arising from the different economic structure of each region. Secondly, we account for the cross-sectional dependence due to common shocks or spillovers among different regions at the same time. Finally, we look for clubs of convergence using tests of poolability both on…

Regional Disparities and Public Policies in Italy: Some Considerations in Light of a Performance Analysis

Since the beginning of the 1990s, the Italian Government has attempted to implement a new generation of policies aimed at reducing regional disparities. It is claimed that compared to the past, these policies should be more far reaching since they emphasize the importance of the structural economic conditions in promoting growth and convergence. In this paper, we use a dataset of regional social and economic indicators in order to look at the evidence surrounding the outcome of these policies. A frontier approach seems to be suitable for the purpose of this research, as it yields a ranking of performance scores where regions can be compared in cross-sectional and a temporal dimension. Addit…

Emerging Markets and the Global Financial Crisis

Over the 1990s, crises developed in emerging markets and, while they did send shockwaves across the world, their effects were perceived mostly by other emerging markets.1 The domestic and international policy recommendations that followed focused on strategies to reduce this instability, seen as a threat to the world economy. At the end of the 2000s, the world seems to have gone upside down. The 2008/2009 global financial crisis started earlier in 2007 with a sharp rise in defaults on sub-prime mortgages in one of the most advanced nations, the US, and quickly spread through the interbank market to become an international credit and liquidity squeeze. The credit crisis involved other indust…

A Spatial Multilevel Analysis of Italian SMEs Productivity

Abstract In this paper, we adapt multilevel analysis methods to investigate the spatial variability of SMEs' productivity across the Italian territory, and account for differences in the socio-economic context. Our results suggest that to properly capture the variability of the data, it is important to allow for both spatial mean and slope effects. Social decay has the expected negative impact. However, while this effect is larger on firms with smaller capital intensity, firms with higher capital intensity seem to be less affected by geography. Greater territorial heterogeneity emerges among those firms with lower capital to labour ratios. Une analyse spatiale a plusieurs niveaux de la prod…

Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals

The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, the authors document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on co-movement of commodity prices.

Expectations and the term premium as time varying leading indicators of US economic activity

This paper investigates the growth predictive properties of the expectation-related and term premium components of the US term spread. Results suggest that although the predictive power of two components has greater predictive power compared to the simple spread, it has a time-varying nature. The expectations-related term is positive and statistically significant up to the end of the 80s becoming insignificant afterwards. The term-premium estimates are positive and significant for a brief period in the 70s, turn insignificant after the 80s, except in short intervals at the beginning of the 90s and the 2000s, when they turn negative.

National fiscal consolidations and regional inequality in Europe

Using annual data for 13 European countries over the period 1980-2008, we assess the impact of national fiscal consolidations on the income inequality of European regions. Regional dispersion increases in the outcome of consolidation episodes, particularly, when packages are more severe and implemented through spending cuts rather than tax rises. From a policy perspective, these findings suggest that fiscal consolidations driven by reductions in government spending can exacerbate regional disparities and may ultimately counteract the European policy efforts to promote territorial cohesion. Our results are robust to alternative inequality measures, the occurrence of crisis episodes and the e…

Interests Or Expectations?: A Political Economy Model Of The Credibility Of Exchange Rate Agreements

Testing for convergence from the micro-level

Empirical convergence analysis is typically envisaged from a macro aggregate perspective. However, researchers have recently highlighted how investigating convergence at the disaggregate level may yield interesting insights into the convergence debate. In this paper, we suggest an approach that allows exploiting large micro panels to test for convergence. Compared to the traditional convergence analysis, this approach allows obtaining beta- and sigma-like convergence parameters for both the micro and the macro level of interest. We provide a practical example that analyses productivity convergence across firms and provinces using a large sample of Italian firms.

Social capital formation across space: proximity and trust in European regions

An extensive economics and regional science literature has discussed the importance of social capital for economic growth and development. Yet, what social capital is and how it is formed are elusive issues, which require further investigation. Here, we refer to social capital in terms of “civic” capital and “good culture,” as rephrased by Guiso, Sapienza, and Zingales and Tabellini. The accumulation of this kind of capital allows the emerging of regional informal institutions, which may help explaining differences in regional development. In this article, we take a regional perspective and use exploratory space and space–time methods to assess whether geography, via proximity, contributes…

Institutional Quality and FDI

Extreme Interdependence and Extreme Contagion between Emerging Markets