0000000000970848
AUTHOR
Theoklis E. Zaoutis
A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic phenomenon
This article belongs to the special issue: Soft computing techniques in materials science and engineering Summarization: The modeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology, and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making. To this end, in the present study, based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the authors, the time evolution of COVID-19 is investigated for six different countries/states, namely New York, California, USA, Iran, Sweden and UK. The number of COVID-19-related deaths is used to develop the proposed heuristic model as it is believed that the predicted number of dai…
A Novel Heuristic Global Algorithm to Predict the COVID-19 Pandemic Trend
SummaryMathematical models are useful tools to predict the course of an epidemic. A heuristic global Gaussian-function-based algorithm for predicting the COVID-19 pandemic trend is proposed for estimating how the temporal evolution of the pandemic develops by predicting daily COVID-19 deaths, for up to 10 days, starting with the day the prediction is made. The validity of the proposed heuristic global algorithm was tested in the case of China (at different temporal stages of the pandemic). The algorithm was used to obtain predictions in six different locations: California, New York, Iran, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the entire United States, and in all cases the prediction was confirmed…