0000000000994647
AUTHOR
Roar Adland
showing 2 related works from this author
Multivariate modeling and analysis of regional ocean freight rates
2018
Abstract In this paper, we propose a new multivariate model for the dynamics of regional ocean freight rates. We show that a cointegrated system of regional spot freight rates can be decomposed into a common non-stationary market factor and stationary regional deviations. The resulting integrated CAR process is new to the literature. By interpreting the common market factor as the global arithmetic average of the regional rates, both the market factor and the regional deviations are observable which simplifies the calibration of the model. Moreover, forward contracts on the market factor can be traded in the Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) market. We calibrate the model to historical spot r…
Value based trading of real assets in shipping under stochastic freight rates
2009
The article uses a real options valuation model with stochastic freight rates to investigate market efficiency and the economics of switching between the dry bulk and the tanker markets in international shipping. A dry bulk carrier is replaced with a tanker when the expected net present value of such a switch is optimal from a real options based decision rule. Depending on the development of the markets a reversal may take place later. The cost and demand parameters upon which the decisions to switch are made, including the stochastic characteristics of freight rates, are estimated from an empirical analysis that is updated every week throughout a 12-year time period from 1993 to 2005. The …