Analysing time-varying trends in stratospheric ozone time series using the state space approach

Abstract. We describe a hierarchical statistical state space model for ozone profile time series. The time series are from satellite measurements by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II and the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) instruments spanning the years 1984–2011. Vertical ozone profiles were linearly interpolated on an altitude grid with 1 km resolution covering 20–60 km. Monthly averages were calculated for each altitude level and 10° wide latitude bins between 60° S and 60° N. In the analysis, mean densities are studied separately for the 25–35, 35–45, and 45–55 km layers. Model variables include the ozone mean level, local trend, seasonal osc…