Visualization of Parameter Sensitivity of 2D Time-Dependent Flow
In this paper, we present an approach to analyze 1D parameter spaces of time-dependent flow simulation ensembles. By extending the concept of the finite-time Lyapunov exponent to the ensemble domain, i.e., to the parameter that gives rise to the ensemble, we obtain a tool for quantitative analysis of parameter sensitivity both in space and time. We exemplify our approach using 2D synthetic examples and computational fluid dynamics ensembles.
Quantitative View on the Processes Governing the Upscale Error Growth up to the Planetary Scale Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme
Abstract Two diagnostics based on potential vorticity and the envelope of Rossby waves are used to investigate upscale error growth from a dynamical perspective. The diagnostics are applied to several cases of global, real-case ensemble simulations, in which the only difference between the ensemble members lies in the random seed of the stochastic convection scheme. Based on a tendency equation for the enstrophy error, the relative importance of individual processes to enstrophy-error growth near the tropopause is quantified. After the enstrophy error is saturated on the synoptic scale, the envelope diagnostic is used to investigate error growth up to the planetary scale. The diagnostics re…
Extreme precipitation events over northern Italy. Part II : Dynamical precursors
The connection between weather extremes and Rossby wave packets (RWP) has been increasingly documented in recent years. RWP propagation and characteristics can modulate the midlatitude weather, setting the scene for temperature and precipitation extremes and controlling the geographical area affected. Several studies on extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the Alpine area reported, as the main triggering factor, a meridionally elongated upper‐level trough as part of an incoming Rossby wave packet. In this work, we investigate a wide number of EPEs occurring between 1979 and 2015 in northern‐central Italy. The EPEs are subdivided into three categories (Cat1, Cat2, Cat3) according to thermo…
Classification of precipitation events with a convective response timescale and their forecasting characteristics
[1] The convective timescale τc, which is mainly determined by the ratio of CAPE and precipitation rate, provides a physically-based measure to distinguish equilibrium and non-equilibrium convection. A statistical analysis of this timescale, based upon observational data from radiosonde ascents, rain gauges, and radar for seven warm seasons in Germany, reveals that the equilibrium and non-equilibrium regimes can be regarded as extremes of a continuous distribution. The two regimes characterize very different interactions between the large-scale flow and convection. The quality of precipitation forecasts from a non-hydrostatic regional weather prediction model with parameterized convection d…