0000000001029340
AUTHOR
Paulina Marco
Risk forecasting models and optimal portfolio selection
This study analyses, from an investor's perspective, the performance of several risk forecasting models in obtaining optimal portfolios. The plausibility of the homoscedastic hypothesis implied in the classical Markowitz model is dicussed and more general models which take into account assymetry and time varying risk are analysed. Specifically, it studies whether ARCH-type based models obtain portfolios whose risk-adjusted returns exceed those of the classical Markowitz model. The same analysis is performed with models based on the Lower Partial Moment (LPM) which take into account the assymetry in the distribution of returns. The results suggest that none of the models achieve a clearly su…
Self-organizing maps could improve the classification of Spanish mutual funds
In this paper, we apply nonlinear techniques (Self-Organizing Maps, k-nearest neighbors and the k-means algorithm) to evaluate the official Spanish mutual funds classification. The methodology that we propose allows us to identify which mutual funds are misclassified in the sense that they have historical performances which do not conform to the investment objectives established in their official category. According to this, we conclude that, on average, over 40% of mutual funds could be misclassified. Then, we propose an alternative classification, based on a double-step methodology, and we find that it achieves a significantly lower rate of misclassifications. The portfolios obtained from…
Forecasting Exchange Rates Volatilities Using Artificial Neural Networks
This paper employs Artificial Neural Networks to forecast volatilities of the exchange rates of six currencies against the Spanish peseta. First, we propose to use ANN as an alternative to parametric volatility models, then, we employ them as an aggregation procedure to build hybrid models. Though we do not find a systematic superiority of ANN, our results suggest that they are an interesting alternative to classical parametric volatility models.