Modélisation du comportement des agriculteurs face au risque dans un modèle de programmation mathématique positive (PMP) à grande échelle

Agricultural production is characterized for being a risky business due to weather variability, market instability, plant diseases as well as climate change and political economy uncertainty. The modelling of risk at farm level is not new, however, the inclusion of risk in Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) models is particularly challenging. Most of the few existing PMP-risk approaches have been conducted at farm-type level and for a very limited and specific sample of farms. This implies that the modelling of risk and uncertainty at individual farm level and in a large scale system is still a challenging task. The aim of this paper is to formulate, estimate and test a robust methodol…