Start of the dry season as a main determinant of inter-annual Mediterranean forest production variations

Abstract Recent investigations have highlighted the dependence of Mediterranean forest production on spring rainfall. The current work introduces the concept of the start of the dry season (SDS) and performs a three-step analysis to determine the effect of SDS on Mediterranean forest production. Seven forest zones of Tuscany (Central Italy), which present differently pronounced Mediterranean features, are considered. First, a statistical analysis investigates the influence of spring water budget on forest Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) inter-annual variations during July–August. The analysis is then extended to assess the impact of inter-annual SDS variability on forest gross…