0000000001086854
AUTHOR
Ana González-urteaga
An Empirical Analysis of the Lead Lag Relationship Between CDS and Stock Market
This paper complements the recent literature providing a thorough research of the lead lag relationship between stock and sovereign CDS markets using a rolling VAR framework. We find that the transmission channel between the credit and stock market exist. This phenomenon is time varying, it seems to be related with the economic cycle and in general, it’s more intense in US than in Europe.
Bank fragility and contagion: Evidence from the bank CDS market
Understanding how contagion works among financial institutions is a top priority for regulators and policy makers who aim to foster financial stability and to prevent financial crises. Using bank credit default swap (CDS) data, we provide a framework for the evaluation of contagion among banks in different countries and regions during a period of prolonged financial distress. We measure contagion in terms of return spillovers, following a Generalized VAR (GVAR) approach. In addition, we propose an innovative framework to distinguish between two types of contagion: systematic (linked to global factors), and idiosyncratic (linked to bank specific factors). We find evidence of both types of co…
Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?
We analyse the cross-border transmission effect of credit ratings on sovereign CDSs covering a broad sample of emerging countries during the period 2004 to 2015. This study differentiates between the spillover and competition effects between and within geographical areas of emerging countries. We find substantial evidence of cross-border effects with asymmetric responses to upgrades and downgrades. The market reaction differs across regions, reflecting how the international and local impact of rating events are due to different types of effects. At the international portfolio level, the competitive effect is dominant over the spillover effect. Negative events in Asia benefit Africa (which i…
A systematic review of sovereign connectedness on emerging economies.
This article systematically reviews the academic literature on emerging market contagion in order to summarize what we have learnt about the transmission channels existing in these countries. Given the large body of academic research focused on this topic, we especially direct our attention to the strand of the literature that defines and empirically analyses this topic as the significant increase in the cross-market correlations between asset returns during crisis periods or when a shock occurs. The survey covers the findings on financial contagion in the stock, bond, exchange and credit default swap markets during a large period that covers several crises that have characterized the relat…
Volatility spillovers in the European bank CDS market
From the 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis,the banking industry has experienced terrible financial instabilitywith increasing volatility levels of bank default probability. UsingEuropean CDS spreads data from January 2006 to March 2013, thispaper sheds light on the impact of three recent significant events ofcredit risk volatility transmission between, firstly, Eurozone andnon-Eurozone banks, and then between distressed peripheral andcore countries inside the Eurozone. We employ an asymmetricmultivariate BEKK model to measure cross-market volatility spil-lovers. We find that both recent crises are distinct episodes. Theglobal financial crisis that originated outside Eu…
The Effect of Credit Rating Events on the Emerging CDS Market
We document the cross-border spillover impact of S&P sovereign credit rating events on sovereign CDS using an extensive sample of emerging economies. First, we find on average a competition (imitation) effect of downgrades (upgrades) among emerging portfolios. Results confirms that non-event portfolios responds positively to credit deteriorations in terms of an improvement in sovereign credit risk. Second, the sovereign credit risk of non-event countries within the same portfolio benefit (suffer) from downgrades (upgrades). As expected, this implies a competition effect in terms of sovereign credit risk. Moreover, we find that downgrades are more likely to spill over into other emerging mar…
The role of internal corporate governance mechanisms on default risk: A systematic review for different institutional settings
Recent financial downturns, characterized by the significant failures of firms, have revealed the need to control credit risk. Latest literature has shown that weak corporate governance structures are related to high levels of default risk, leading to financial instability. In this context, we aim to summarize the literature that focuses on the role that internal corporate governance plays in the credit risk of firms, specifically considering three corporate governance components: ownership structure, board structure and financial stakeholders’ rights and relations. Additionally, we analyse whether the effectiveness of the internal mechanisms depends on particular key factors, especially th…
How credit ratings affect sovereign credit risk: cross-border evidence in Latin American emerging markets
This article builds upon previous literature by providing a better understanding of how contagion changes in bordering sovereign CDS emerging markets resulting from credit rating events. To that end, we follow the novel GVAR methodology using data from six Latin American emerging countries during an extensive sample period from 2004 to 2014. Our findings show evidence for the existence of significant and asymmetric cross-border effects. In particular, a competition effect is observed before the event occurs, indicating that non-event countries suffer (benefit) from upgrades (downgrades) in Brazil, Mexico and Chile (in Argentina and Brazil). In contrast, an imitation effect is observed after…
Future directions in international financial integration research - A crowdsourced perspective
This paper is the result of a crowdsourced effort to surface perspectives on the present and future direction of international finance. The authors are researchers in financial economics who attended the INFINITI 2017 conference in the University of Valencia in June 2017 and who participated in the crowdsourcing via the Overleaf platform. This paper highlights the actual state of scientific knowledge in a multitude of fields in finance and proposes different directions for future research.
Credit risk transmission in the European banking sector: the case of the subprime and Eurozone debt crises
El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar en profundidad la transmisión del riesgo de crédito, aproximado por los CDS spreads, en el sector bancario europeo durante el periodo 2006-2012, intentando dar respuesta a diversas cuestiones: (i) ¿existe evidencia de transmisión del riesgo de crédito entre las entidades financieras europeas de la Eurozona y las que no pertenecen a dicha zona?, (ii) ¿es esta transmisión bidireccional o unidireccional?, (iii) concretamente, ¿qué países han liderado dicha transmisión?, y (iv) ¿cómo se ha visto afectada dicha transmisión con las recientes crisis financieras? Los resultados indican un cambio significativo en la transmisión del riesgo de crédito con e…
The Nexus between Sovereign CDS and Stock Market Volatility: New Evidence
This paper extends the studies published to date by performing an analysis of the causal relationships between sovereign CDS spreads and the estimated conditional volatility of stock indices. This estimation is performed using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) and dynamically applying the Granger causality test. The conditional volatility of the stock market has been obtained through various univariate GARCH models. This methodology allows us to study the information transmissions, both unidirectional and bidirectional, that occur between CDS spreads and stock volatility between 2004 and 2020. We conclude that CDS spread returns cause (in the Granger sense) conditional stock volatility, m…
Credit Risk transmission in the European Banking Sector: The Case of the Subprime and the Eurozone Debt Crisis
El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar en profundidad la transmisión del riesgo de crédito, aproximado por los CDS spreads, en el sector bancario europeo durante el periodo 2006-2012, intentando dar respuesta a diversas cuestiones: (i) ¿existe evidencia de transmisión del riesgo de crédito entre las entidades financieras europeas de la Eurozona y las que no pertenecen a dicha zona?, (ii) ¿es esta transmisión bidireccional o unidireccional?, (iii) concretamente, ¿qué países han liderado dicha transmisión?, y (iv) ¿cómo se ha visto afectada dicha transmisión con las recientes crisis financieras? Los resultados indican un cambio significativo en la transmisión del riesgo de crédito con e…
Is There a Connection between Sovereign CDS Spreads and the Stock Market? Evidence for European and US Returns and Volatilities
This study complements the current literature, providing a thorough investigation of the lead&ndash