Prévisibilité des précipitations ouest africaines (échelles intrasaisonnières et saisonnières) au travers des simulations type DEMETER et des observations

Following the recommendations proposed by the AMMA community three main objectives were set for this research. The first was to analyze the direct outputs of general circulation models of the atmosphere used in the DEMETER project. The second was to propose a new method for predicting seasonal rainfall in the Sahel using the direct outputs of GCMs the best simulated, that is to say, those related to atmospheric dynamics which explains the penetration of the West African monsoon in the continent, and therefore, the total rainfall during the monsoon season of boreal summer. The third goal finally was to analyze and compare probabilistic forecasts from the forum and PRESAO project ENSEMBLES. T…

Predictability of July-August rainfall over Western and Central Sahel using the 63 DEMETER coupled simulations