Improving the prediction of air pollution peak episodes generated by urban transport networks

Abstract This paper illustrates the early results of ongoing research developing novel methods to analyse and simulate the relationship between trasport-related air pollutant concentrations and easily accessible explanatory variables. The final scope is to integrate the new models in traditional traffic management support systems for a sustainable mobility of road vehicles in urban areas. This first stage concerns the relationship between the hourly mean concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and explanatory factors reflecting the NO2 mean level one hour back, along with traffic and weather conditions. Particular attention is given to the prediction of pollution peaks, defined as exceedanc…