0000000001217728

AUTHOR

Mondher Sahli

showing 1 related works from this author

Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team

2021

Abstract COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions,…

Multivariate statisticsEx-ante[QFIN]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]Visitor pattern05 social sciencesUnivariateCOVID-19Hierarchical forecastsVisitor arrivalsDevelopmentDestinationsSettore SECS-P/06 - Economia ApplicataCompetition (economics)Settore SECS-S/06 -Metodi Mat. dell'Economia e d. Scienze Attuariali e Finanz.Tourism Leisure and Hospitality Management0502 economics and businessEconomicsEconometrics050211 marketingScenario forecastingBaseline (configuration management)050212 sport leisure & tourismTourismComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUSForecasting
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