6533b86efe1ef96bd12ccace
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team
Mondher SahliAndrea SaaymanNikolaos KourentzesSerena VoloDavide ProvenzanoNeelu SeetaramPhilippe Jean-pierresubject
Multivariate statisticsEx-ante[QFIN]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]Visitor pattern05 social sciencesUnivariateCOVID-19Hierarchical forecastsVisitor arrivalsDevelopmentDestinationsSettore SECS-P/06 - Economia ApplicataCompetition (economics)Settore SECS-S/06 -Metodi Mat. dell'Economia e d. Scienze Attuariali e Finanz.Tourism Leisure and Hospitality Management0502 economics and businessEconomicsEconometrics050211 marketingScenario forecastingBaseline (configuration management)050212 sport leisure & tourismTourismComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUSForecastingdescription
Abstract COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions, seasonal factors and vaccine development. Results show an average recovery of 58% compared to 2019 tourist arrivals in the 20 destinations under the medium scenario; severe, it is 34% and mild, 80%.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-01 |