Search results for "Forecasting"

2019

Abstract. This study uses the synergy of multi-resolution soil moisture (SM) satellite estimates from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, a dense network of ground-based SM measurements, and a soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model, SURFEX (externalized surface), module ISBA (interactions between soil, biosphere and atmosphere), to examine the benefits of the SMOS level 4 (SMOS-L4) version 3.0, or “all weather” high-resolution soil moisture disaggregated product (SMOS-L43.0; ∼1 km). The added value compared to SMOS level 3 (SMOS-L3; ∼25 km) and SMOS level 2 (SMOS-L2; ∼15 km) is investigated. In situ SM observations over the Valencia anchor station (VAS; SMOS calibrati…

Potential impacts of a future Nordic bioeconomy on surface water quality

2020

AbstractNordic water bodies face multiple stressors due to human activities, generating diffuse loading and climate change. The ‘green shift’ towards a bio-based economy poses new demands and increased pressure on the environment. Bioeconomy-related pressures consist primarily of more intensive land management to maximise production of biomass. These activities can add considerable nutrient and sediment loads to receiving waters, posing a threat to ecosystem services and good ecological status of surface waters. The potential threats of climate change and the ‘green shift’ highlight the need for improved understanding of catchment-scale water and element fluxes. Here, we assess possible bio…

Statistical retrieval of atmospheric profiles with deep convolutional neural networks

2019

Abstract Infrared atmospheric sounders, such as IASI, provide an unprecedented source of information for atmosphere monitoring and weather forecasting. Sensors provide rich spectral information that allows retrieval of temperature and moisture profiles. From a statistical point of view, the challenge is immense: on the one hand, “underdetermination” is common place as regression needs to work on high dimensional input and output spaces; on the other hand, redundancy is present in all dimensions (spatial, spectral and temporal). On top of this, several noise sources are encountered in the data. In this paper, we present for the first time the use of convolutional neural networks for the retr…

The Making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 2: production and evaluation

2020

This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the mesoscale wind atlas. In this paper, Part 2, we document how we made the final wind atlas product, covering both the production of the mesoscale climatology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the microscale climatology generated with the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulati…

The making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 1: Model sensitivity

2020

This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model simulations of the wind atlas. The suitable combination of model setup and parameterizations, bound by practical constraints, was found for simulating the climatology of the wind field at turbine-relevant heights with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial WRF model sensitivity experiments compared the wind climate generated by using two commonly used planetary boundary layer schemes and were carried out over several regions in Europe. They…

A process-based anatomy of Mediterranean cyclones: from baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems

2021

Abstract. In this study, we address the question of the atmospheric processes that turn Mediterranean cyclones into severe storms. Our approach applies on-line potential vorticity (PV) budget diagnostics and piecewise PV inversion to WRF model simulations of the mature stage of 100 intense Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the relative contributions of different processes to cyclone development and therefore deliver, for the first time, a comprehensive insight into the variety of cyclonic systems that develop in the Mediterranean from the perspective of cyclone dynamics. In particular, we show that all 100 cyclones are systematically influenced by two main PV anomalies: a major anomaly in…

Global-Scale Evaluation of Roughness Effects on C-Band AMSR-E Observations

2015

Quantifying roughness effects on ground surface emissivity is an important step in obtaining high-quality soil moisture products from large-scale passive microwave sensors. In this study, we used a semi-empirical method to evaluate roughness effects (parameterized here by the parameter) on a global scale from AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS) observations. AMSR-E brightness temperatures at 6.9 GHz obtained from January 2009 to September 2011, together with estimations of soil moisture from the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) L3 products and of soil temperature from ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting) were used as inputs in a retrieval…

Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

2019

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.…

Decoding Group Vocalizations: The Acoustic Energy Distribution of Chorus Howls Is Useful to Determine Wolf Reproduction

2016

Population monitoring is crucial for wildlife management and conservation. In the last few decades, wildlife researchers have increasingly applied bioacoustics tools to obtain information on several essential ecological parameters, such as distribution and abundance. One such application involves wolves (Canis lupus). These canids respond to simulated howls by emitting group vocalizations known as chorus howls. These responses to simulated howls reveal the presence of wolf litters during the breeding period and are therefore often used to determine the status of wolf populations. However, the acoustic structure of chorus howls is complex and discriminating the presence of pups in a chorus i…

Semen characteristics and their ability to predict sperm cryopreservation potential of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua L.

2010

There is a lack of biomarkers or indices that can be used to predict the quality of fish semen samples following the freezing and thawing cycle. In the present study, a series of semen indices were tested to assess if they could accurately forecast the cryopreservation potential of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) semen. Fresh and frozen-thawed sperm activity variables were compared, and relationships between frozen-thawed sperm activity and fertilization success were examined. In comparison with fresh sperm, activity variables of frozen-thawed spermatozoa were reduced. Of the 18 males examined, mean (± SEM) spermatocrit of fresh sperm was 40.72 ± 4.23%, osmolality of the seminal plasma 366.32 ±…