6533b833fe1ef96bd129c1e7
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
Francesco SeraHaidong KanJan KyselýJulio CruzBaltazar NunesYuming GuoAriana ZekaPatricia Matus CorreaPaola MichelozziMasahiro HashizumeMicheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio CoelhoNiilo R.i. RytiHans OrruAurelio TobiasJae-young LeeNicolas Valdes OrtegaCarmen IñiguezAleš UrbanMathilde PascalPaulo Hilário Nascimento SaldivaChristofer ÅStrömDung Do VanYasushi HondaHo KimMartina S. RagettliMatteo ScortichiniBing-yu ChenFetemeh MayvanehYueliang Leon GuoTran Ngoc DangAntonella ZanobettiShanshan LiRosana AbrutzkyAna M. Vicedo-cabreraMichelle L. BellShilu TongAla OvercencoBertil ForsbergXerxes SeposoAntonio GasparriniPatrick GoodmanJoel SchwartzJoão Paulo TeixeiraSamuel David Osorio GarcíaEric LavigneMagali HurtadoBen ArmstrongJouni J. K. JaakkolaEne Indermittesubject
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciencesvulnerabilityVulnerabilityHot temperatureprojection010501 environmental sciencesGlobal Health01 natural sciencesGlobal WarmingRegional variationHot TemperatureAnimal scienceElderly populationPhysical Sciences and MathematicsGlobal healthHumansClimate changeProjectionMortalitylcsh:Environmental sciences0105 earth and related environmental sciencesGeneral Environmental Sciencelcsh:GE1-350Excess mortalityTemperatureregional variationPublic Health Global Health Social Medicine and EpidemiologyAtmospheric temperature rangemortality3. Good healthFolkhälsovetenskap global hälsa socialmedicin och epidemiologiclimate changeRegional variationAvaliação do Impacte em Saúde13. Climate actionEnvironmental scienceDeterminantes da Saúde e da DoençaForecastingdescription
An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population. © 2019
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-01 |